Severe Weather Possible Tuesday (2/2/16)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a risk for severe weather that is forecast for Tuesday, February 2, 2016. As always, revisions to this forecast will be necessary so keep an eye out for updates. If you're short on time, head to the bottom for the quick version.



As of 1:00 a.m. Monday, February 1st, the Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service has continued a medium risk for severe weather in West Tennessee on Tuesday, February 2nd. It's worth noting that the area of enhanced risk has shifted slightly east, something I suspect may continue in later outlooks.

First of all, Tuesday is going to be warm - you might even call it hot! While Monday will be slightly cooler than Sunday was, warm air will come back. Below is a model forecast for temperatures - 70s look likely in parts of West Tennessee.

One of the main things we watch in a forecast for severe weather is energy and there should be a sufficient amount of it for severe thunderstorms. In the image below, areas in blue are for a high of energy for winter-time. Don't focus so much on where that energy is on the map but rather as much as how high it could be. However, it's also possible that storms forming ahead of the main area of risk will limit the amount of energy we get causing severe weather to become less likely. It's an important piece of the recipe and we'll have to monitor this closely.

Right now, we have a high amount of confidence in West Tennessee getting a lot of rain on Tuesday - especially those areas near the Tennessee River. Currently, I think most of the area has a good chance to see 0.50" to 1" or more fall from Tuesday morning through evening.

As far as timing is concerned, the four images below outline the basic development of the storms on Tuesday. They show 12pm, 3pm, 6pm and 9pm. Our confidence is increasing on the main threat for severe weather taking place from later in the morning through the evening - say around 9am to 9pm. We'll get a better idea for that timeline on Monday, especially by the 10pm newscast.

Finally, just because this does fall on the first Tuesday of the month of February I know a lot of people are concerned with a threat for tornadoes given what happened here on February 5th, 2008. I'll say this - this forecast setup doesn't resemble what was forecast that day at all. However, "weak" and brief tornadoes will be possible. The map below shows an area in yellow that highlights a low to moderate value for a tornado risk. I'd be more concerned if I saw any red or maroon show up on the map.

In summary, here's the QUICK VERSION:

• On Tuesday - all of West Tennessee needs to be prepared for severe weather but especially if you live near the Tennessee River.
• Storms will start in the later hours of the morning and advance eastward through the afternoon and evening.
• The severe weather threat is increasing but it's certainly not guaranteed. Things can still change.
• Tornadoes look possible, but we're not expecting a major tornado outbreak - the main threat will be with damaging winds, flash flooding, and large hail.

Stay aware, prepare, and feel free to share!

- Tom