UPDATE: Slight Risk for Severe Weather Saturday, Dec. 17th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a chance for severe weather that is forecast for today, Saturday, December 17th, 2016.

Well, here we are! Winter one day, Spring the next! Temperatures have warmed up even quicker than expected reaching near 70°F in some places here at 9:15am thanks to the surprise sunshine we've had this morning. That was something I really wasn't expecting us to have much of today, but it could lead toward a more enhanced risk for severe weather tonight.



We haven't had much rain so far and it doesn't look like we'll see much more in West Tennessee until this afternoon. So if you're trying to get some errands done before the holidays, the morning and early afternoon is going to be the best time to do it because after 3 or 4pm we'll start seeing the risk for severe weather increase.



Right now, there's a slight risk for severe weather in all of West Tennessee for this afternoon and evening. That may be upgraded to an enhanced risk later this morning or afternoon. The main threats are still for damaging winds and flash flooding in any thunderstorms that become severe, but the possibility for an isolated tornado is increasing.



Make sure you have a viable way of receiving alerts on your cell phone in case tornado watches or warnings are issued! Here's one way

Right now, the latest weather models are showing the greatest risk for severe weather in Jackson occurring between 5pm and 9pm. Between 7pm and 8pm, this data shows the temperature in Jackson dropping 15°F!



This animated loop shows you what the radar may look like later today. The strongest storms will start developing in northwest Tennessee this afternoon between 2 and 4pm but may not finally leave West Tennessee near Savannah until between 11pm and 1am.



You'll notice toward the end of the lapse, that an ominous purple color shows up. That's the freezing rain and sleet we'll see on the back edge of the rain as colder air crashes in. We're still not expecting anything significant regarding snowfall tonight. Sure, we might see a few snowflakes but don't expect it to stick much if at all.



Ice, on the other hand, could be a problem, especially for the eastern half of West Tennessee. The image below shows the probability for 0.10" of ice to accumulate. That wouldn't really be enough to cause power lines to come down but could accumulate on elevated roadways and overpasses to create a few slick spots on Sunday morning. In addition to freezing rain and sleet, some puddles of rain could freeze with temperatures in the mid 20s by Sunday morning.



Stay weather-aware today, West Tennessee. We're about to see quite a change over the next several hours!

Summary:

• Severe weather will be possible today during the later hours of the afternoon and evening. Savannah may still have strong thunderstorms around midnight.
• Temperatures will drop sharply after the cold front comes through
• Freezing rain and sleet are a real possibility and could cause some hazardous travel in some areas after midnight into early Sunday morning.

Slight Risk for Severe Weather Saturday, Dec. 17th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a chance for severe weather that is forecast for today, Saturday, December 17th, 2016.

Temperatures have already reached the upper 40s in parts of West Tennessee this afternoon now that we have winds from the south gusting between 20 and 25 miles per hour. If anything, this should tell you that our warm-up has begun and is still forecast to continue into Saturday when high temperatures tomorrow could reach the lower to middle 70s!

The two big question that remain are: 1) Will we get severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening? and 2) Could the cold air catch up to the rain quickly enough to bring freezing rain, sleet, or snow to West Tennessee?

Here's what we know so far...

The Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service has upgraded our risk from marginal (1 out of 5) to slight (2 out of 5) so the possibility for a severe thunderstorm tomorrow is looking more likely than it did yesterday for Mississippi and parts of West Tennessee.

The main threats with any storms that become severe tomorrow are with a possibility for damaging winds and an isolated tornado but flash flooding may also occur now that the ground is more saturated from recent rainfall.

As far as timing is concerned, we'll see rain move into West Tennessee tonight and tomorrow morning but the best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will occur between the late afternoon and the late night hours, not ending in Savannah until midnight or 1 a.m. Sunday morning.

You may notice that some of that rain does change over to a wintry mix briefly as the front crosses the Tennessee River. The possibility for West Tennessee to see any freezing rain or sleet is there, but it still does not look like we'll see much if any accumulation. At the very most, there might be a light coating of ice on your car or on tree branches Sunday morning, but with minimal impact to our ability to travel. In Middle Tennessee, the possibility for accumulating ice is higher.

So to summarize:

• Best possible outcome with our weather this weekend is that we get some wind and rain with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet between Saturday night and Sunday morning.
• Worst case scenario is that in addition to the wind and rain, we have severe thunderstorms producing an isolated tornado with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet between Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Stay weather aware tomorrow! If you have any errands to run this weekend, Saturday morning and early afternoon will be the best time to get things done! Don't forget to tie down those Christmas decorations down tonight too!

I'll keep you posted with another update on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News!

Will West Tennessee Get Snow This Week?

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the cold air coming with a chance for rain on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, December 7th to December 8th, 2016.

The title of this post seems to be the big question I've been getting in my inbox this weekend. Here we are on December 4th, Christmas Day is 3 weeks away! So where's the snow? Well...

...the interactive radar on our website (www.wbbjtv.com/weather/interactive-radar) shows quite a bit of snow falling over parts of Michigan and the Great Lakes region today. But to really answer your question...



The chart above shows the first and last measurable snowfall dates for Jackson over the years for each winter, dating back to the late 1800s. Each blue bar is drawn for dates between when the first snowfall was recorded to when the last snowfall was recorded. This tells us that, on average, our first snowfall for Winter happens on January 11th and the last snowfall happens on February 5th. You'll notice that there are some years missing so...



Here's a second chart from a different station in Jackson with data going back to the mid 1900s. In this dataset the numbers tell us that, on average, our first snowfall happens on January 5th and the last snowfall happens on February 14th.

In other words, we don't see snow in December very often. We see it more during January and February. Nevertheless, in the last decade (2006-2015) we've had snow in 9 out of 10 Decembers whether that was as few as just one day of that month or 5 days out of that month of measurable snowfall.

Regarding the chance for snow everyone is talking about for later this week, I've been receiving references to forecasts from a certain cable station and from the National Weather Service calling for snow this week on Wednesday night (December 7th) into Thursday morning (December 8th). But there's a reason why we don't get measurable snowfall very often in December. Among many other reasons, one is that the ground is too warm!



Even right now, a website called greencastonline.com shows our soil temperatures in West Tennessee between 40° and 50°F! Snow doesn't stick to that.

What we have setting up on Wednesday night into Thursday morning is a slight chance for rain being chased by cold air coming straight down from Alaska. In some cases that rain could change over to snow, but that doesn't look likely for us this time. If it does end up happening, we could see some flurries but nothing that will impact travel too much.

There were definitely times that some of the computer models showed snow sticking on Thursday but there are some problems with these models. More often than not they show nothing sticking for West Tennessee.



So stay with us as we monitor this system. Our job is to prepare - not scare! We're certainly aware of the fact that some people like the idea of snow falling before Christmas (I'm one of them!) but we're not going to just tell you what you want to hear! We want to be accurate and trustworthy for our viewers so that we can be depended upon when weather makes getting out on the roads a hassle.

That's our goal. Thanks for watching!