Severe Weather Risk for Saturday, April 25th

There is a slight risk for severe weather in West Tennessee Saturday morning and early afternoon.

As a warm front moves into West Tennessee overnight, showers and thunderstorms will continue with the best chance for any thunder and lightning near the Tennessee-Mississippi border. The back edge of the bulk of showers and thunderstorms will likely move east of the Tennessee River after 7 a.m. CDT.

However, we may still see a few scattered storms in eastern counties of West Tennessee (Henry, Carroll, Benton, Henderson, Decatur, Chester, McNairy, and Hardin counties) during the hours after sunrise. Activity will be moving northeast with strong southwesterly winds. By the time the atmosphere gets more energy, most of the rain, and the ingredients to cause the storms will have moved north and east. Right now, it appears unlikely that West Tennessee will see severe weather.

If any storms become severe they could contain damaging straight-line winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall in these thunderstorms could also lead to flash flooding.

This forecast is all about timing, and the way the models have panned this out, it just doesn't seem like it's in the cards for this to be a severe weather event for West Tennessee. Even after all the rain is said and done, tomorrow will still be a windy day. Winds could gust over 30 miles per hour.

Summary

• Showers and thunderstorms overnight (t'storms possible near southwest TN)
• Showers become more isolated after sunrise
• A few stray storms are possible late morning early afternoon
• The chance for severe weather is low
• Windy weather coming in the afternoon

Severe Weather Risk for the Night of Sunday, April 19th

3:30 p.m. - 

Rain showers and a few thunderstorms are moving northeast across West Tennessee. There are a few pockets of isolated heavy rain but these storms are NOT associated with the main threat for severe weather today which will arrive tonight. In fact, you can expect a nice sunset soon as clouds are continuing to disappear in the southwest Tennessee sky right now.

There is a slight to enhanced risk for severe weather in West Tennessee. 

It will be dry to end the daylight hours but between 8pm and 9pm, a line of thunderstorms will be moving over the Mississippi River heading east into West Tennessee. It should be in the vicinity of Jackson around 10 or 11pm. Most of West Tennessee will just get some gusty winds and heavy rain, but a few of these storms could be or become severe as they cross the Mississippi River. The main threat from any storms that become severe will be from damaging straight-line winds and large hail. There's the outside chance for a tornado to occur in the Mid-South though the probability is low. 

In any event, make sure your weather radios are on and that you have some way of getting severe weather information. If you're on social media (and chances are that that's how you found this blog) then follow the VIPIR 7 Storm Team on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram for updates. The Twitter page is the most reliable source for real-time weather update information.

Quick Notes

• Expect a nice sunset
• Line of thunderstorms will move through West Tennessee from 8p-1a
• Most of West Tennessee will at least get gusty wind and rain
• A few severe thunderstorms are possible with the threat of straight-line winds (+60mph) and large hail
• Tornadoes are possible but unlikely

Stay weather aware!

Severe Weather Potential for the Night of Thursday, April 9th

Good morning!

An area of low pressure in the Central Plains is moving northeast toward the Upper Midwest today. Trailing behind that is a cold front that could bring severe weather to West Tennessee later tonight.

Concerning the daytime, at any point during the afternoon there is a 30%-40% chance for a scattered thunderstorm in West Tennessee which will have the potential to become strong or severe but that threat will be localized. The cold front won't come into West Tennessee until between late tonight and early Friday morning. When it does, this is what the risk for severe weather looks like in our area.

The western two-thirds of the West Tennessee region will have a 2-3 (medium) risk for severe weather to occur. This is where we'll probably be tracking thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail.

As you can see below, the damaging wind and hail threat will be the main concern today - especially when the front arrives later tonight. If any tornadoes form in tonight's thunderstorms they would be more likely to occur near the Mississippi River than compared to the Tennessee River.

As the line moves east, the threat for severe weather will mainly turn into a damaging wind threat as the thunderstorms form a line, but I don't want to discount the risk for flash flooding. Some of the thunderstorms ahead of the the front could produce rainfall rates of up to 2" per hour, so localized flash flooding is still going to be something that we'll have to look out for.

Just to reiterate, the main line of storms won't come until later tonight, though a scattered storm will be possible this afternoon. Here's a look at the timing for that main line.

The Big Takeaway:
This is NOT an event to panic about. I also don't think that we should expect a widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms. Most areas will probably just see thunderstorms with some heavy rain, lightning and some gusty winds. A few locations could get some hail and damaging winds. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best!

In any event, the VIPIR 7 Storm Team is committed to updating you with later developments throughout the day on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Like or follow our pages by clicking on those links!

Plus, don't forget to download the WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News app on Apple and Android devices. There, you can set up weather alerts for your area and use an interactive radar to track the storms throughout the day.

I'll keep you posted!

Good Friday Severe Weather Risk

At 11:31 p.m. CDT on April 2nd, 2015, a cold front approaching the Mid-South was already igniting severe weather in the Central plains. This same cold front could also cause severe weather to occur in parts of West Tennessee very early Friday morning, Friday afternoon, and through early Friday evening.
 

As the front approaches northwest Tennessee it will gradually slow down but ongoing thunderstorms to our north could become severe with a risk of large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. In fact, much of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri is under a Flood Watch.

 There are also Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches issued to our north and northwest.

The main thing to consider is that when the front approaches West Tennessee thunderstorms will develop. So, by that thinking, the chance for thunderstorms will increase from northwest to southeast in West Tennessee as we go into Good Friday morning, afternoon, and early evening.

However, the atmosphere will be "capped" initially. This simply means that severe thunderstorms will have a hard time developing at first. By the afternoon, that cap will diminish and thunderstorms will be more likely to form along the cold front as it moves through West Tennessee.

The timing for the main threat...

 and the risk...

 
are important considerations in making your plans throughout the day, today.

 
Also consider that we're expecting the main impact from these storms to come from large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding should they become severe. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but there is a low probability for that right now.
After sunset most, if not all, of the thunderstorms will be out of West Tennessee and we can enjoy a quiet and cooler Easter weekend.

 
Myself and the rest of the VIPIR 7 Storm Team will keep you posted throughout the day! Here's how to contact us...