Thursday, May 11, 2017

Risk for Severe Weather Tonight (5/11/17)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a chance for severe weather that is forecast 
for tonight, Thursday, May 11th, 2017.

So far so good! Temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s under partly to mostly clear  skies for now. We’ve had a few isolated showers this morning but nothing terribly heavy yet. The main points of discussion in this post are the risk for severe weather later today and tonight, and the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

Lets talk data…

At the moment, some of the more reliable models still have considerable differences within them, so even though we’re within 24 hours of seeing thunderstorms in West Tennessee, there’s still considerable difficulty pinning down where exactly those storms will be and when.

Here’s a look at the NAM 3km at 10pm…



…and here’s a look at the HRRR at 10pm.



Both models usually perform well, but they disagree on the placement for incoming showers and thunderstorms.  To be a little more specific, some models are allowing the rain to start between 8 and 10 PM but others suggest it could start earlier between 6 and 8 PM.

All of West Tennessee is either under a marginal risk (1 out of 5) or a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather. This is a relatively low risk, but one or two thunderstorms that develop in West Tennessee tonight may become severe. If any thunderstorms do become severe, then we’ll need to be on the lookout for damaging winds and large hail. The chance for a tornado is low tonight.


After this system moves in this evening, the rest of the night and day tomorrow will have scattered showers and thunderstorms into Friday afternoon.


There’s no way to know for sure if it will rain during the West Tennessee Strawberry Festival Grand Floats Parade until tomorrow morning so we’ll prepare for the worst but hope for the best.

Best case scenario: we catch a break in the showers and get through the parade rain-free. Worst case scenario: we have a thunderstorm at 10:00am. Severe weather is even more unlikely tomorrow, so I’m not expecting that. 


So to summarize: 
  • We have a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow
  • Some thunderstorms could become strong or severe tonight
  • Damaging winds and large hail are possible if any thunderstorms become severe but the tornado threat is low
  • Rain will continue to come and go Friday morning and afternoon, tapering off by sunset