UPDATE: Winter Weather Expected March 4th - 5th

A few aspects of this forecast will be adjusted, but for the most part, things seem relatively similar to how they did last night. This is what the radar lapse looked like during the late morning hours of the day. It's from our interactive radar and it's a great way to track where the rain sleet and snow is relative to your house!

Temperatures dropped quite a bit last night after they were at 63°F at 12:53 am in Jackson. We're already in the 30s in northwest Tennessee but still had 60s in southeast counties of West Tennessee near Savannah around 11am.

This is the latest timeline for how the precip will change, but this is for the specific spot of Jackson. Points northwest of Jackson will see the change from rain to ice sooner and points southeast will see it later, just like we expected last night.

The green line above represents rain, red represents freezing rain, purple represents sleet, and blue represents snow. So the timing remains unchanged for Jackson for the most part. The only thing that has had a change is the increase in chance for precipitation overnight. In other words, the freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be heavier when it falls. This, of course, will have an impact on how much we get.

More on probabilities...

The above graphic shows where the chance for a quarter inch of ice to accumulate is located. Those areas colored in blue have a 40%-60% for that to happen - somewhat likely. This is what we had forecast last night, but snowfall could be higher than I mentioned yesterday.

This graphic shows the probability of where in West Tennessee 4" of snow could fall. Red/orange areas have an 80%-90% chance for that - northwest Tennessee. Along I-40, the chance is there but it drops off to 40%-60% over Jackson, so not as likely but still possible. It's unlikely that southeast West Tennessee gets 4".

Finally, for Jackson, the latest output is still showing a very wide range of forecast snow accumulation by noon Thursday. It's best to not focus on the highest potential but instead to watch the average value which is between 3"-4" of snow for Jackson.

I'll be increasing forecast snow & sleet totals across West Tennessee slightly. Leaning toward 2"-4" of snow and sleet for Jackson now with a quarter inch or less of freezing rain. I'll post the maps later today. Further updates will be made to our website.

Good luck and stay safe!

Winter Weather Expected March 4th - 5th

The fact that it's only one year (almost to the day) that separates West Tennessee between two dangerous ice storms is odd enough, but it's only 17 days until Spring arrives and before the week is over parts of West Tennessee, including Jackson, may set new record low temperatures for the month of March. Winter isn't going down without a fight!

First off, temperatures...At 12:23 a.m. when I started writing this blog, this is what it looked like across West Tennessee.

In about 24 hours, these numbers may be 30 degrees cooler in some spots, thanks to a cold front that will come along with showers and breezy winds overnight.

Rain will be off and on throughout the morning on Wednesday, but with rain showers hitting certain spots over and over again, flooding could be a problem. This will be especially true in low lying areas that may also have poor drainage. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for northwest Tennessee until noon Wednesday.

Speaking of weather alerts, all of West Tennessee will be under a Winter Storm Warning from today until noon Thursday.

A warning, in this case, simply means that this winter weather event is imminent and very likely to occur. So you're probably wondering when it will really start going and how much snow and ice we'll get.

Rain will change over to freezing rain during the afternoon and evening hours today (Wednesday)...

This change will start early in the afternoon in northwest Tennessee and continue to take place later on at points southeast throughout the rest of the day on Wednesday. Parts of Hardin and McNairy county may not see the phase change occur until a few hours before midnight. In Jackson, this change will probably take place around 5pm give or take an hour. At that point, and at the times shown above, it's recommended that you avoid going on the roads since travel will become increasingly difficult. Eventually, that freezing rain will change to sleet and then to snow making travel dangerous with roads becoming icy. 

Here's how much sleet and snow accumulation we could get along with freezing rain...

You've probably looked at other sources and might be wondering why ours are so "low". Well, it seems to me like the warmer weather will hang around slightly longer, and so this will lead to lower amounts of snow and sleet.

BUT, the impacts are still there. In this case, it's best not to get caught up on amounts and just make sure you're prepared for these potential impacts...

With a quarter inch of ice on tree branches on power lines and winds gusting over 30mph, spotty power outages are bound to happen. With icy road conditions, accidents are bound to happen Wednesday night and Thursday morning. With dangerous conditions, school closures are bound to happen. These will be the things to watch for and prepare for.

I'll keep you posted with another update coming out later this morning.