Threat for Severe Thunderstorms and Damaging Winds Tonight and Tomorrow

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the risk for severe weather on the night of WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13th and the late morning through afternoon of THURSDAY, MARCH 14th.

UPDATE - 12:45pm Wednesday, March 13th, 2019

I know this probably seems like it's getting old, but March, April, and May, are the most common months for severe weather in West Tennessee. This is par for the course for late Winter and early Spring which officially begins one week from today!

Showers and thunderstorms will begin moving into the area tonight with a threat for damaging winds. The threat for tornadoes tonight is low but the chance for rotating thunderstorms increases late Thursday morning through the afternoon.

SUMMARY 

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in after sunset and pose a threat for damaging winds overnight - especially near the Mississippi River
• Winds may gust over 60 miles per hour in the strongest storms, but even when it's not raining winds could still gust up to 50 mph this afternoon and evening
• A second round of thunderstorms will develop late tomorrow morning and afternoon 
• The 2nd round poses a slightly higher threat for tornadoes and large hail but will mainly impact parts of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River

I'll have the forecast hour-by-hour live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm and 6:00pm on ABC and at 5:30pm and 6:30pm on CBS. I'll be back with another update on both networks at 10:00pm.

Risk for Severe Weather on SATURDAY, MARCH 9th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for severe weather on SATURDAY, MARCH 9th.

UPDATE - 11:30am Friday, March 8th, 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, Friday, March 8th and again on Saturday, March 9th. Some of the thunderstorms that develop between Saturday morning, afternoon, and evening could become severe with a primary threat for damaging winds and large hail.

The main opportunity for any isolated tornadoes tomorrow would take place in the afternoon and evening but it depends on whether there is still energy available in the atmosphere to cause any thunderstorms to become strong at that point.

SUMMARY 

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, Friday March 8th although thunderstorms are not expected to become severe today
• After a brief break later this evening and tonight, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move through ahead of a warm front very early Saturday morning
• The main round of heavy showers and thunderstorms coming through tomorrow expected to move through during the morning and early afternoon moving from west to east. Some thunderstorms may become severe at that time with a primary concern for large hail
• The cold front will move through West Tennessee during the afternoon and evening on Saturday and if there is any energy still available, any thunderstorms that develop along the front could be rotating and produce a potential for a tornado. Again, this all depends on whether there is any energy left in the atmosphere in the afternoon and evening.

I'll have the latest forecast live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm and 6:00pm on ABC and at 5:30pm and 6:30pm on CBS. I'll be back with another update on both networks at 10:00pm.

Rain and Snow Today, Sunday, March 3rd

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the winter weather risk for the morning, afternoon, and evening of SUNDAY, March 3rd.

UPDATE - 10:00am Sunday, March 3rd, 2019
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northwest Tennessee until 1 o'clock this afternoon.




UPDATE - 8:30am Sunday, March 3rd, 2019

Last week, the models remained all in agreement that it looked like snow would fall mostly along the Tennessee-Kentucky state line and cause few issues near I-40 in West Tennessee. Very slowly, those models have gradually brought colder and colder air into West Tennessee farther and farther south. It's starting to look as though not only could parts of West Tennessee get "grass-covering" snow but also more of the area could see snow altogether.

The backbone of this forecast comes down to "where will the center of low pressure travel?" Colder air is on the north side of the low and warmer air is on the south side, so the farther south that feature goes, the farther south the cold air goes! This graphic shows a group of models trying to pin down where the low would be, and most now show central Mississippi.

There has been a gradual trend in the data that this low is going farther south allowing for colder air to invade more of West Tennessee. So let's actually look at the numbers and see what the 8 a.m. temperatures are.

Temperatures are cold everywhere but they're already only 2°F above freezing in northwest Tennessee, so snow may begin to fall there sooner than expected. Now, the low pressure is going to move slow, so we aren't expecting the temperatures to fall below freezing, for example, in Jackson until later tonight. This 24-hour forecast temperature chart shows below-freezing temperatures at 9 o'clock this evening.

But we don't necessarily have to have below freezing temperatures for snow to fall. Some parts of West Tennessee near the Tennessee-Kentucky state line will see snow first, and then gradually that rain-snow line will move farther south. Right now, radar is already estimating that a wintry mix is coming down over northwest Tennessee.

This will be the tricky part, as we'll depend on your observations to see where the snow is actually hitting the ground. Radar data is often only showing us what kind of precipitation is falling a mile up in the sky and not what is reaching the surface. Please keep me posted on what you're seeing via social media!

As far as totals go, that's going to be tricky too. Take this model for example - it shows a narrow band of 1"-2" of snow falling in West Tennessee just north of I-40.

However, there are still some factors limiting this from actually happening - the ground is too warm and the air temperatures will not drop fast enough for what falls to stick. We may very well have a band of 1-2" of snow fall in northwest Tennessee today but that's going to happen anywhere, it's likelier near where temperatures are already near freezing.



Please keep us posted on what you're seeing today as that will help us update the forecast! The snow is currently expected to stop this afternoon with a few light snow showers possible this evening. Then we're going to look at the potential for "flash freezing" tonight with below freezing temperatures causing slick roads in West Tennessee!

We'll have the latest forecast on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:30pm. I'll update social media throughout the day as well.

SUMMARY 

• Air temperatures are near freezing in northwest Tennessee and overall, temperatures are colder than expected
• It's possible that with below freezing temperatures there soon, we may see a quicker change over to a wintry mix or snow
• The rain-snow line will gradually travel south this morning and afternoon with the snow expected to stop this afternoon followed by a few light snow showers this evening
• See the graphic just above for forecast snowfall totals