Saturday, November 30, 2019

Threat for Severe Weather Today: Saturday, November 30th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the risk for severe weather on the afternoon and evening of SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 30th.



UPDATE - 10:30am Saturday, November 30th, 2019

Showers and thunderstorms have already made for a wet morning in West Tennessee with heavy downpours and occasional thunder and lightning but the risk for severe weather will be delayed until the afternoon and evening. The threat for tornadoes is low but it's always one we take seriously and will continue to monitor for. There is a greater chance for damaging winds and large hail today than there is for tornadoes but even their risk is slight (level 2 out of 5).

SUMMARY 

  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through for the rest of the morning and early afternoon but they're not expected to be severe
  • Non-thunderstorm wind gusts may not be as high as they were this week on Tuesday night, but could still gust to 30 mph this afternoon and evening
  • A second round of thunderstorms will develop in the middle of the afternoon and continue through the evening: 3pm - 9pm
  • The 2nd round poses a slight risk for damaging winds and large hail with a low risk for an isolated tornado
  • Wind gusts will be stronger on Sunday possibly up to 40 mph
Meteorologist Corallys Ortiz will have the forecast hour-by-hour live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 6:00pm on CBS. wbbjtv.com/live

Monday, June 17, 2019

A little bit about a Little Bit

This post is not weather related...

...but, it was on November 14th, 2018 that my wife and I had our first ultrasound of our baby girl - the same day that Jackson got the earliest 1" of snow on record. Every appointment afterwards seemed to coincide with various other weather phenomena seeming to prophecy that this tiny human would follow in my footsteps.


Our girl was due to be born on June 18th - a mere two days after Father's Day - and I told my wife
, Evan, that she would never have to do anything for me ever again if she could only bring our baby into the world a little earlier so we could celebrate. I warned her that if our baby was born on June 18th, that we would be naming her after Jackson's new mayor (Scott or Jerry) set to be elected later that evening. Unfortunately, it turned out that our baby was going to have to come earlier in any case, because she was measuring small at our May appointments. Evan was going to be induced the night of June 10th or 11th.



To take in the quiet air of one of our last child-less nights, my wife and I enjoyed a perfect day on Saturday, June 8th. The weather in West Tennessee turned out just as forecast - scattered showers, warm and muggy. We proceeded through our usual Saturday ritual of getting our groceries (and donuts) at the Farmers' Market and visiting Pinson Mounds with our dog, Roxi. After tending to some last minute errands and preparing the home for baby, we went out for a date night of dinner and a movie. Everything seemed to be going according to our new plan. 
We went to bed around 11 o'clock.



I woke up at 2:30 Sunday morning to Evan telling me that something was happening. She thought that she was having contractions and that her water had broken. This wasn't expected, but it certainly was welcomed! Having a natural birth was high on the list of what Evan had hoped this pregnancy would culminate in! We got to the hospital at 4 that morning and found that Evan was fully effaced...

...but only 1 cm dilated.

It took 25 grueling hours before Evan could finally start pushing, and then 1 hour later, our beautiful girl was here! All that time in the hospital that seemed to drag on then felt so brief. We are so incredibly thankful for the hospital staff from triage to discharge that took care of us. We also can't thank Evan's parents 
enough who took care of us from the very beginning of labor through our first week as parents. They drove all the way from Raleigh the minute we told them we were going to the hospital! We're also incredibly grateful for the wisdom from Dr. Christopher Welch that kept the mama and baby healthy throughout the whole process. Our faith in God and the prayers of our family and church at Cornerstone Community Church saw us through the birth of our first child and will keep us going through the days, months, and years to come.



Many of you have reached out asking about her name. For the moment, my wife and I are keeping that information about her as private as this modern technological age will let us. We will be making a concerted effort to keep that part of her confidential for the moment. I am planning to be back on WBBJ on June 24th. You can catch me then, and I may even bring a guest soon after that. I cannot wait to show off this little bug on the green screen. Who knows what kind of weather we'll have then!








Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Threat for Severe Thunderstorms and Damaging Winds Tonight and Tomorrow

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the risk for severe weather on the night of WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13th and the late morning through afternoon of THURSDAY, MARCH 14th.



UPDATE - 12:45pm Wednesday, March 13th, 2019

I know this probably seems like it's getting old, but March, April, and May, are the most common months for severe weather in West Tennessee. This is par for the course for late Winter and early Spring which officially begins one week from today!

Showers and thunderstorms will begin moving into the area tonight with a threat for damaging winds. The threat for tornadoes tonight is low but the chance for rotating thunderstorms increases late Thursday morning through the afternoon.

SUMMARY 

  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in after sunset and pose a threat for damaging winds overnight - especially near the Mississippi River
  • Winds may gust over 60 miles per hour in the strongest storms, but even when it's not raining winds could still gust up to 50 mph this afternoon and evening
  • A second round of thunderstorms will develop late tomorrow morning and afternoon 
  • The 2nd round poses a slightly higher threat for tornadoes and large hail but will mainly impact parts of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River
I'll have the forecast hour-by-hour live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm and 6:00pm on ABC and at 5:30pm and 6:30pm on CBS. I'll be back with another update on both networks at 10:00pm.

Friday, March 8, 2019

Risk for Severe Weather on SATURDAY, MARCH 9th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for severe weather on SATURDAY, MARCH 9th.



UPDATE - 11:30am Friday, March 8th, 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, Friday, March 8th and again on Saturday, March 9th. Some of the thunderstorms that develop between Saturday morning, afternoon, and evening could become severe with a primary threat for damaging winds and large hail.

The main opportunity for any isolated tornadoes tomorrow would take place in the afternoon and evening but it depends on whether there is still energy available in the atmosphere to cause any thunderstorms to become strong at that point.

SUMMARY 

  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, Friday March 8th although thunderstorms are not expected to become severe today
  • After a brief break later this evening and tonight, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move through ahead of a warm front very early Saturday morning
  • The main round of heavy showers and thunderstorms coming through tomorrow expected to move through during the morning and early afternoon moving from west to east. Some thunderstorms may become severe at that time with a primary concern for large hail
  • The cold front will move through West Tennessee during the afternoon and evening on Saturday and if there is any energy still available, any thunderstorms that develop along the front could be rotating and produce a potential for a tornado. Again, this all depends on whether there is any energy left in the atmosphere in the afternoon and evening.
I'll have the latest forecast live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm and 6:00pm on ABC and at 5:30pm and 6:30pm on CBS. I'll be back with another update on both networks at 10:00pm.

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Rain and Snow Today, Sunday, March 3rd

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the winter weather risk for the morning, afternoon, and evening of SUNDAY, March 3rd.

UPDATE - 10:00am Sunday, March 3rd, 2019
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northwest Tennessee until 1 o'clock this afternoon.




UPDATE - 8:30am Sunday, March 3rd, 2019



Last week, the models remained all in agreement that it looked like snow would fall mostly along the Tennessee-Kentucky state line and cause few issues near I-40 in West Tennessee. Very slowly, those models have gradually brought colder and colder air into West Tennessee farther and farther south. It's starting to look as though not only could parts of West Tennessee get "grass-covering" snow but also more of the area could see snow altogether.

The backbone of this forecast comes down to "where will the center of low pressure travel?" Colder air is on the north side of the low and warmer air is on the south side, so the farther south that feature goes, the farther south the cold air goes! This graphic shows a group of models trying to pin down where the low would be, and most now show central Mississippi.


There has been a gradual trend in the data that this low is going farther south allowing for colder air to invade more of West Tennessee. So let's actually look at the numbers and see what the 8 a.m. temperatures are.




Temperatures are cold everywhere but they're already only 2°F above freezing in northwest Tennessee, so snow may begin to fall there sooner than expected. Now, the low pressure is going to move slow, so we aren't expecting the temperatures to fall below freezing, for example, in Jackson until later tonight. This 24-hour forecast temperature chart shows below-freezing temperatures at 9 o'clock this evening.

But we don't necessarily have to have below freezing temperatures for snow to fall. Some parts of West Tennessee near the Tennessee-Kentucky state line will see snow first, and then gradually that rain-snow line will move farther south. Right now, radar is already estimating that a wintry mix is coming down over northwest Tennessee.


This will be the tricky part, as we'll depend on your observations to see where the snow is actually hitting the ground. Radar data is often only showing us what kind of precipitation is falling a mile up in the sky and not what is reaching the surface. Please keep me posted on what you're seeing via social media!

As far as totals go, that's going to be tricky too. Take this model for example - it shows a narrow band of 1"-2" of snow falling in West Tennessee just north of I-40.


However, there are still some factors limiting this from actually happening - the ground is too warm and the air temperatures will not drop fast enough for what falls to stick. We may very well have a band of 1-2" of snow fall in northwest Tennessee today but that's going to happen anywhere, it's likelier near where temperatures are already near freezing.



Please keep us posted on what you're seeing today as that will help us update the forecast! The snow is currently expected to stop this afternoon with a few light snow showers possible this evening. Then we're going to look at the potential for "flash freezing" tonight with below freezing temperatures causing slick roads in West Tennessee!
We'll have the latest forecast on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:30pm. I'll update social media throughout the day as well.

SUMMARY 

  • Air temperatures are near freezing in northwest Tennessee and overall, temperatures are colder than expected
  • It's possible that with below freezing temperatures there soon, we may see a quicker change over to a wintry mix or snow
  • The rain-snow line will gradually travel south this morning and afternoon with the snow expected to stop this afternoon followed by a few light snow showers this evening
  • See the graphic just above for forecast snowfall totals

Saturday, February 23, 2019

Threat for Severe Weather Today - Saturday, February 23rd

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the afternoon and evening of SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 23rd.




UPDATE - 9:00am Saturday, February 23rd, 2019

Flash flooding and damaging winds remain the primary severe weather threat for West Tennessee today with heavy rain off-and-on through the evening and a potential for strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

SUMMARY 

  • Energy is forecast to return to the atmosphere this afternoon when West Tennessee could see flash flooding and damaging winds occur with a secondary concern for large hail and a few tornadoes
  • If you watched the news last night, it looks like we'll see a mix between Scenario A and B with a slight edge to Scenario A - the one giving us a chance for a more energy. Damaging winds and hail are still the main threats.
  • The greatest threat for tornadoes is along and south of I-40 today where there is a moderate risk for severe weather (level 4 out of 5)
  • The main threat for severe weather in West Tennessee starts after noon and evening takes place until 9 p.m. ending from west to east across the Tennessee River in the early evening
We'll have the latest forecast on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 6:00pm on ABC and CBS. If a tornado warning is issued we will stream coverage live at wbbjtv.com/live

Friday, February 22, 2019

Threat for Severe Weather Tonight and Saturday, February 23rd

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the evening of FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 22nd through SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 23rd.




UPDATE - 1:30pm Friday, February 22nd, 2019

Flash flooding remains the primary severe weather threat for West Tennessee with heavy rain off-and-on through Saturday evening. Strong thunderstorms will be possible tonight and again Saturday afternoon and evening.

SUMMARY 

  • Heavy rain will move through West Tennessee overnight continuing the threat for flash flooding and adding a potential for strong thunderstorms that could produce large hail
  • Any rain that occurs late tomorrow morning or early in the afternoon could knock down the energy in the atmosphere lowering the risk for severe weather
  • If there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere, then West Tennessee could see flash flooding and damaging winds occur with a secondary concern for large hail and a few tornadoes
  • The main threat for severe weather in West Tennessee starts Saturday afternoon and evening takes place between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m. starting near the Mississippi River in the afternoon and ending by the Tennessee River in the early evening
I'll have the latest forecast live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm and 6:00pm on ABC and at 5:30pm and 6:30pm on CBS. I'll be back with another update on both networks at 10:00pm.