I'll begin with what we know right now, and that is that West Tennessee is under a marginal (1 out of 5) to slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe weather from right now, through 7 a.m. Thursday morning.
From 7 a.m. Thursday to Thursday evening, West Tennessee is under an enhanced (3 out of 5) risk for severe weather.
This means that there will be a low to low-medium chance for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight mainly near the Mississippi River (points southwest of Jackson) but on Thursday all of West Tennessee has a medium risk for severe weather.
Rain will begin to appear over West Tennessee during this (Wednesday) afternoon and evening. Short term model data is pointing to that and has been for some time. Severe weather is unlikely at this time but a thunderstorm could take shape. Below you'll see how the rain is scattered at the beginning of the loop (during the evening) but late at night (9pm Wednesday into early Thursday morning) the rain becomes more widespread and HEAVY. Plus, the risk for severe weather increases slightly.
There is a FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect for much of southwest Tennessee. The counties colored in green are under the watch because they have a chance for 2"-4" of rain to fall over the next 36 to 48 hours. Some may see even more than that. (Sorry the image is a little blurry)
Flooding is the main concern for West Tennessee Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, we'll be keeping an eye on the risk for a severe thunderstorm to move into West Tennessee from the southwest where damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado will be possible. This would be likeliest after midnight and into the early morning on Thursday.
The rain will come to an end in West Tennessee sometime after daybreak Thursday, but the risk for severe weather and the chance for rain will return through the afternoon and evening hours.
Yesterday (Tuesday) on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News, I mentioned that I was uncertain about the timing of the cold front on Thursday. If it came through early, then our risk for severe weather wouldn't be too significant but we would still need to be on alert for Flash Flooding.
I was worried that the front might come in later though, and that continues to appear the direction this weather forecast is heading. Based on that trend, and the available ingredients for storms there will be a risk for damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes in West Tennessee Thursday afternoon and evening.
The calendar says late March, so a discussion regarding a risk for severe weather is not uncommon this time of year. In fact, a recent study of climatology in the Mid-South by the National Weather Service in Memphis revealed that March is the 2nd most active month for deadly tornadoes and the 3rd most active month for all tornadoes.
That said, you absolutely NEED to be weather aware for the next 36 to 48 hours! Make sure you have a way to receive alerts including tornado watches and warnings and all other forms of breaking weather information. Be prepared not scared!
Highlights:
1. Be prepared for Flash Flooding tonight and early Thursday if your area is under a flash flood watch right now.
2. Be prepared for severe weather tonight and early Thursday if you live in an area under a risk for severe weather tonight - especially the area in the slight risk.
3. Be prepared for severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. In addition to the risk for damaging winds and large hail, a few tornadoes will be possible.
Watch WBBJ 7 Eyewitness news tonight for the latest forecast!
