Partial Solar Eclipse

A partial solar eclipse will be visible in West Tennessee Thursday afternoon, October 23rd from 4:50 until the sun sets a little after 6 o'clock. The only condition preventing us from getting a clear view will be potential cloud cover. VIPIRCast shows us mostly to partly cloudy at 5. However, the clouds will likely be high and thin and shouldn't completely obscure our view.

The maximum eclipse will take place at 5:52 in Jackson Thursday afternoon at which point 32.5% of the sun will be hidden behind the moon. A solar eclipse occurs when the moon passes directly in between the earth and the sun during the moon's orbit around the earth. Tomorrow, the eclipse will not be complete because the geometrical orientation of these bodies will not allow the sun to be fully covered by the moon. Even in the optimal position on the globe for viewing, which will be in Canada's Nunavut Territory near Prince of Wales Island, only 75% of the sun will be covered.

WARNING! Viewing a solar eclipse without proper equipment can cause permanent damage to your eyes! Never attempt to look directly at the sun. Sunglasses are NOT safe way to view this eclipse or any solar eclipse for that matter!

There are a few ways you can look at the solar eclipse without causing damage to your eyes. Unless you're using a special filter on a telescope, I wouldn't recommend even trying to use those or binoculars. The easiest way and possibly the safest way to view the solar eclipse is shown here in this very educational video from Space.com.

Hopefully the skies will cooperate tomorrow for us, and if you can't get a safe way to view the eclipse in time, don't worry! We'll be posting images on Facebook, Twitter, and will take a live look at it on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5 and 5:30!

Updated Forecast for Columbus Day

As expected, most of West Tennessee has been upgraded to a moderate risk for severe weather today with a chance for damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail today and tonight. Damaging winds will be the likeliest threat with severe thunderstorms forming along the squall line.

Storms will be crossing into the Mississippi River Valley close to just after noon today. Be weather aware when you're heading home on the commute or picking up the kids from school! I wouldn't advise travel during the time frames you see listed in the image below for those areas. Make sure to watch WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News MidDay (ABC at 11:30) and Noon (CBS at 12:00) with Forecaster Gary Pickens as we track the storms.

(Thanks to the National Weather Service in Memphis for this graphic)

Severe Weather Potential for Columbus Day - Monday, October 13, 2014

When meteorologists are making a forecast, you may hear us occasionally refer to the level of confidence with which we have creating those predictions. These past few days, we've noticed that the forecast confidence for tomorrow (Monday) has increased. The reason why we're more sure of this event, is because the computer models that help us make our forecast have been fairly consistent hinting at a threat for severe weather tomorrow for several days now. Here's what you need to know...

A large portion of the Mid-South is under a slight risk for severe weather on Monday, October 13th.

This can also be interpreted to mean that there is a 15% chance for severe weather to occur within 25 miles of a point for the area under a slight risk. However, you'll notice that the area encompassing most of West Tennessee has an even greater chance (30%). This leads me to believe that they may raise our risk to moderate overnight.

The local National Weather Service office in Memphis, TN has also issued their own hazardous weather outlook, and as you can see from the graphic above, this ties into all of West Tennessee, and northern Mississippi, and eastern Arkansas for that matter, to be at a risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday.

The latest models show that the main threat will be from damaging winds, but a few tornadoes will be possible ahead of a squall line that is forecast to move through West Tennessee from 4pm to midnight tomorrow night. Unfortunately, this also means that many folks in the Mid-South may have to deal with nocturnal tornadoes on Monday night. The timing is somewhat variable, but those threats (damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail - in that order) will remain consistent in the forecast.

4pm CDT Monday 10/13/2014

7pm CDT Monday 10/13/2014

11pm CDT Monday 10/13/2014

As always, I urge you to make your preparations NOW! Make sure your weather radios are in alert mode and have a fresh set of batteries. In addition, make sure you are prepared for power outages, and with an emergency kit containing flashlights. Meteorologist Erik Taylor will be on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 10 tonight with the latest forecast and Forecaster Gary Pickens will be on Good Morning West Tennessee to track the latest developments along with tracking the storm's movements at 11:30 on ABC and at noon on CBS. We'll continue to update our website as well as our social media outlets on Facebook and Twitter.

Be safe!

UPDATE: April 28th Severe Weather Outlook

As of 1:00 a.m. CDT on this Monday April 28th, the Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service has issued their Day 1 Convective Outlook for the area. Starting with the categories, you can see that West Tennessee is divided under the slight (yellow) risk and the moderate (red) risk.

The main focus for now, will be on thunderstorms that become severe in southeast West Tennessee and southern Middle Tennessee along with parts of central and northeast Mississippi, and northwest Alabama. The Tornado Outlook shows a maximum probability of 15% (red) for the development of a tornado and 10% or greater chance for EF2 - EF5 strength tornadoes to form within 25 miles of a point in any of the hatched area.
 

The probabilities imply that West Tennessee is in a part of the country that is most likely to see a tornado develop tomorrow and some of those tornadoes can become strong. However, we still don't know exactly how things may develop once the atmosphere becomes worked over tomorrow morning so this is also very much something to watch for any changes. Damaging winds are also expected to be a threat but perhaps not even the main concern with thunderstorms that could become severe. 

The majority of West Tennessee will have a 30% chance to see damaging winds in excess of 60mph as thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. The northwest and western-most sections of West Tennessee are only looking at a 15% chance for damaging winds tomorrow. Finally, the hail threat appears to be the most dominant in our severe weather outlook for today.

A large portion of southeast West Tennessee and southern Middle Tennessee along with parts of central and northeast Mississippi, and northwest Alabama have a 45% chance to see hail larger than 1" today. This currently appears to be one of the main threats for the region today but don't forget about rainfall. The forecast rainfall amounts for today from 7 a.m. today (Monday) through 7 a.m. Wednesday are still forecast to total between a half to two inches added on to the heavy rainfall we had yesterday (Sunday) in the Mid-South. Flash flooding will also be a possibility  for West Tennessee once again.

A new tornado watch has just been issued for several more counties in West Tennessee including Dyer, Fayette, Haywood, Lake, Lauderdale, Shelby, Tipton, Carroll, Crockett, Gibson, Henry, Madison, Obion, and Weakley counties until 8 a.m. today. Stay tuned for more updates!

Severe Weather Threat - April 27-29

As we start the last week of April 2014, severe weather threatens the West Tennessee region like it has been annually for several years during late April and early May. You might recall the major floods in the area from 2010, or the largest amount of tornadoes ever recorded on a single day (April 27) in 2011 affecting several states in the Mid-South. Maybe you remember that an EF-2 tornado ravaged parts of Chester county causing hundreds of thousands of dollars in damage in 2012, and last year, parts of Fayette county and other areas in West Tennessee were dealing with damage to structures, power lines, and roadways from high winds and large hail.

This year is no different. We have a possibility for severe weather across multiple days from today (Sunday) into Monday and even possibly on Tuesday. A closed upper-level low is now moving out of the Rocky Mountains into the Plains where an associated cold front, dry line, and warm front will be features in the forecast. Each one of these features could result in severe weather in West Tennessee.

I, and the other members of the VIPIR 7 Storm Team, will continue to update our social media outlets on Facebook and Twitter. We'll also continue to keep our website updated with videos and forecast discussions to the best that we can. Make sure to keep your NOAA Weather Radio on so that you have access to receive these alerts in case of power loss. We'll break into local programming on WBBJ-TV as usual in case widespread severe weather occurs or if a tornado warning has been issued for counties in our viewing area.

Stay safe and stay alert!

Severe Weather Potential: April 3 - 4, 2014

After about 3 days of talking about the forecast for severe weather this week, today is finally here. On my walk this morning in North Jackson, the sky was already looking ominous and sunshine was peeking through the clouds.

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Special Weather Statement for all of West Tennessee. You can see the text from that report here. Basically, it aligns with what we've been talking about all week.

The Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service has continued our moderate risk for today. As seen below, pretty much all of West Tennessee is under that moderate risk. Everyone in West Tennessee should be prepared for possible severe weather today.

Categorical Risk (West Tennessee - Mainly Moderate)

Tornado Probability (West Tennessee - 10%-15%)

Large Hail Probability (West Tennessee - 30%)

Damaging Wind Probability (West Tennessee - 45%)

It's worth noting that at this point we have our largest threats from damaging winds and large hail with another added threat for tornadoes and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding.

At 9:42 a.m. today, thunderstorms were already making their way northeast into West Tennessee out of Memphis.

Storms have the potential to become severe as early on as during the mid afternoon and that threat will continue overnight. However, the main threat for severe weather lies with an oncoming cold front that won't be moving into West Tennessee until after midnight. Here's a look at the forecast precipitation rates for 3 a.m. Friday morning.

Rainfall rates close to and above 2"/hr in Jackson

Wind Speeds upwards of 40mph (those are sustained winds, gusts will be higher)

Stay tuned to WBBJ and to the Facebook and Twitter accounts of the VIPIR 7 Storm Team for further updates from the National Weather Service throughout the day! 

UPDATE: Severe Weather Potential: Thursday February 20th

The latest from the Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service:
Text Forecast Here
The Categorical Severe Weather Outlook:
(risk for severe weather indicated in yellow)

Tornado probabilities:

Wind Probabilities:

Hail Probabilities:

All in all, it still seems worth putting an emphasis on the possibility for an isolated tornado tomorrow, but the main threat remains with a change for damaging winds. Strong winds will be in place before storms even arrive tomorrow, but within potentially severe thunderstorms winds gust upwards of 60 miles per hour. Make sure you're prepared in case of a power outage, and keep your weather radio on!

Another look at the latest forecast from one of the latest computer model runs shows that these storms could arrive as soon as noon in northwest Tennessee and make their way east from there with storms taking place while kids are getting out of school and some folks are just getting off work.

Severe Weather Potential: Thursday February 20th

For many people in the Mid-South, a forecast high of 75ºF for Thursday, can often do a good job of communicating the threat for severe weather. However, for those of you that might be recent transplants from other parts of the country, tomorrow is going to introduce to you what severe weather can sometimes be like in West Tennessee.

A cold front is going to move across the region tomorrow bringing with it dry and cooler air, but in the meantime, temperatures are going to be VERY mild for this time of the month. In fact, overnight lows may remain in the 60s in Memphis thanks to a warm front crossing West Tennessee overnight bringing warm and moist air with it.

The latest forecast models still show the main threat for severe weather begin with the arrival of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front. This is expected to take place during the afternoon and evening hours in West Tennessee - right during evening commute.

Damaging winds will be possible in storms that form along a squall line (an elongated line of thunderstorms) with wind gusts upwards of 60 mph. This could result in down tree limbs and loss of power in our area so be prepared with an emergency kit in case that occurs. Still, a wind advisory has already been issued for the area and will go into effect at 9 a.m. and last until 9 p.m. tomorrow. This was issued because tomorrow is expected to be just a generally windy day with wind gusts up to 40 mph and beyond even outside of thunderstorm activity.

The Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service currently (4:30 p.m. Wednesday) has us outlined for a 30% chance for severe weather but they may update that overnight and during the day tomorrow. In addition to strong winds, isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

I'll put out another update in the morning. Stay tuned to WBBJ for more details!