UPDATE: April 28th Severe Weather Outlook

As of 1:00 a.m. CDT on this Monday April 28th, the Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service has issued their Day 1 Convective Outlook for the area. Starting with the categories, you can see that West Tennessee is divided under the slight (yellow) risk and the moderate (red) risk.

The main focus for now, will be on thunderstorms that become severe in southeast West Tennessee and southern Middle Tennessee along with parts of central and northeast Mississippi, and northwest Alabama. The Tornado Outlook shows a maximum probability of 15% (red) for the development of a tornado and 10% or greater chance for EF2 - EF5 strength tornadoes to form within 25 miles of a point in any of the hatched area.
 

The probabilities imply that West Tennessee is in a part of the country that is most likely to see a tornado develop tomorrow and some of those tornadoes can become strong. However, we still don't know exactly how things may develop once the atmosphere becomes worked over tomorrow morning so this is also very much something to watch for any changes. Damaging winds are also expected to be a threat but perhaps not even the main concern with thunderstorms that could become severe. 

The majority of West Tennessee will have a 30% chance to see damaging winds in excess of 60mph as thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. The northwest and western-most sections of West Tennessee are only looking at a 15% chance for damaging winds tomorrow. Finally, the hail threat appears to be the most dominant in our severe weather outlook for today.

A large portion of southeast West Tennessee and southern Middle Tennessee along with parts of central and northeast Mississippi, and northwest Alabama have a 45% chance to see hail larger than 1" today. This currently appears to be one of the main threats for the region today but don't forget about rainfall. The forecast rainfall amounts for today from 7 a.m. today (Monday) through 7 a.m. Wednesday are still forecast to total between a half to two inches added on to the heavy rainfall we had yesterday (Sunday) in the Mid-South. Flash flooding will also be a possibility  for West Tennessee once again.

A new tornado watch has just been issued for several more counties in West Tennessee including Dyer, Fayette, Haywood, Lake, Lauderdale, Shelby, Tipton, Carroll, Crockett, Gibson, Henry, Madison, Obion, and Weakley counties until 8 a.m. today. Stay tuned for more updates!