Severe Weather Potential for Columbus Day - Monday, October 13, 2014

When meteorologists are making a forecast, you may hear us occasionally refer to the level of confidence with which we have creating those predictions. These past few days, we've noticed that the forecast confidence for tomorrow (Monday) has increased. The reason why we're more sure of this event, is because the computer models that help us make our forecast have been fairly consistent hinting at a threat for severe weather tomorrow for several days now. Here's what you need to know...

A large portion of the Mid-South is under a slight risk for severe weather on Monday, October 13th.

This can also be interpreted to mean that there is a 15% chance for severe weather to occur within 25 miles of a point for the area under a slight risk. However, you'll notice that the area encompassing most of West Tennessee has an even greater chance (30%). This leads me to believe that they may raise our risk to moderate overnight.

The local National Weather Service office in Memphis, TN has also issued their own hazardous weather outlook, and as you can see from the graphic above, this ties into all of West Tennessee, and northern Mississippi, and eastern Arkansas for that matter, to be at a risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday.

The latest models show that the main threat will be from damaging winds, but a few tornadoes will be possible ahead of a squall line that is forecast to move through West Tennessee from 4pm to midnight tomorrow night. Unfortunately, this also means that many folks in the Mid-South may have to deal with nocturnal tornadoes on Monday night. The timing is somewhat variable, but those threats (damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail - in that order) will remain consistent in the forecast.

4pm CDT Monday 10/13/2014

7pm CDT Monday 10/13/2014

11pm CDT Monday 10/13/2014

As always, I urge you to make your preparations NOW! Make sure your weather radios are in alert mode and have a fresh set of batteries. In addition, make sure you are prepared for power outages, and with an emergency kit containing flashlights. Meteorologist Erik Taylor will be on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 10 tonight with the latest forecast and Forecaster Gary Pickens will be on Good Morning West Tennessee to track the latest developments along with tracking the storm's movements at 11:30 on ABC and at noon on CBS. We'll continue to update our website as well as our social media outlets on Facebook and Twitter.

Be safe!