A few aspects of this forecast will be adjusted, but for the most part, things seem relatively similar to how they did last night. This is what the radar lapse looked like during the late morning hours of the day. It's from our interactive radar and it's a great way to track where the rain sleet and snow is relative to your house!
Temperatures dropped quite a bit last night after they were at 63°F at 12:53 am in Jackson. We're already in the 30s in northwest Tennessee but still had 60s in southeast counties of West Tennessee near Savannah around 11am.
This is the latest timeline for how the precip will change, but this is for the specific spot of Jackson. Points northwest of Jackson will see the change from rain to ice sooner and points southeast will see it later, just like we expected last night.
The green line above represents rain, red represents freezing rain, purple represents sleet, and blue represents snow. So the timing remains unchanged for Jackson for the most part. The only thing that has had a change is the increase in chance for precipitation overnight. In other words, the freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be heavier when it falls. This, of course, will have an impact on how much we get.
More on probabilities...
The above graphic shows where the chance for a quarter inch of ice to accumulate is located. Those areas colored in blue have a 40%-60% for that to happen - somewhat likely. This is what we had forecast last night, but snowfall could be higher than I mentioned yesterday.
This graphic shows the probability of where in West Tennessee 4" of snow could fall. Red/orange areas have an 80%-90% chance for that - northwest Tennessee. Along I-40, the chance is there but it drops off to 40%-60% over Jackson, so not as likely but still possible. It's unlikely that southeast West Tennessee gets 4".
Finally, for Jackson, the latest output is still showing a very wide range of forecast snow accumulation by noon Thursday. It's best to not focus on the highest potential but instead to watch the average value which is between 3"-4" of snow for Jackson.
I'll be increasing forecast snow & sleet totals across West Tennessee slightly. Leaning toward 2"-4" of snow and sleet for Jackson now with a quarter inch or less of freezing rain. I'll post the maps later today. Further updates will be made to our website.
Good luck and stay safe!
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