Well, here we are! Winter one day, Spring the next! Temperatures have warmed up even quicker than expected reaching near 70°F in some places here at 9:15am thanks to the surprise sunshine we've had this morning. That was something I really wasn't expecting us to have much of today, but it could lead toward a more enhanced risk for severe weather tonight.
We haven't had much rain so far and it doesn't look like we'll see much more in West Tennessee until this afternoon. So if you're trying to get some errands done before the holidays, the morning and early afternoon is going to be the best time to do it because after 3 or 4pm we'll start seeing the risk for severe weather increase.
Right now, there's a slight risk for severe weather in all of West Tennessee for this afternoon and evening. That may be upgraded to an enhanced risk later this morning or afternoon. The main threats are still for damaging winds and flash flooding in any thunderstorms that become severe, but the possibility for an isolated tornado is increasing.
Make sure you have a viable way of receiving alerts on your cell phone in case tornado watches or warnings are issued! Here's one way
Right now, the latest weather models are showing the greatest risk for severe weather in Jackson occurring between 5pm and 9pm. Between 7pm and 8pm, this data shows the temperature in Jackson dropping 15°F!
This animated loop shows you what the radar may look like later today. The strongest storms will start developing in northwest Tennessee this afternoon between 2 and 4pm but may not finally leave West Tennessee near Savannah until between 11pm and 1am.
You'll notice toward the end of the lapse, that an ominous purple color shows up. That's the freezing rain and sleet we'll see on the back edge of the rain as colder air crashes in. We're still not expecting anything significant regarding snowfall tonight. Sure, we might see a few snowflakes but don't expect it to stick much if at all.
Ice, on the other hand, could be a problem, especially for the eastern half of West Tennessee. The image below shows the probability for 0.10" of ice to accumulate. That wouldn't really be enough to cause power lines to come down but could accumulate on elevated roadways and overpasses to create a few slick spots on Sunday morning. In addition to freezing rain and sleet, some puddles of rain could freeze with temperatures in the mid 20s by Sunday morning.
Stay weather-aware today, West Tennessee. We're about to see quite a change over the next several hours!
Summary:
- Severe weather will be possible today during the later hours of the afternoon and evening. Savannah may still have strong thunderstorms around midnight.
- Temperatures will drop sharply after the cold front comes through
- Freezing rain and sleet are a real possibility and could cause some hazardous travel in some areas after midnight into early Sunday morning.
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