Slight Risk for Severe Weather Saturday, Dec. 17th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a chance for severe weather that is forecast for today, Saturday, December 17th, 2016.

Temperatures have already reached the upper 40s in parts of West Tennessee this afternoon now that we have winds from the south gusting between 20 and 25 miles per hour. If anything, this should tell you that our warm-up has begun and is still forecast to continue into Saturday when high temperatures tomorrow could reach the lower to middle 70s!

The two big question that remain are: 1) Will we get severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening? and 2) Could the cold air catch up to the rain quickly enough to bring freezing rain, sleet, or snow to West Tennessee?

Here's what we know so far...

The Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service has upgraded our risk from marginal (1 out of 5) to slight (2 out of 5) so the possibility for a severe thunderstorm tomorrow is looking more likely than it did yesterday for Mississippi and parts of West Tennessee.

The main threats with any storms that become severe tomorrow are with a possibility for damaging winds and an isolated tornado but flash flooding may also occur now that the ground is more saturated from recent rainfall.

As far as timing is concerned, we'll see rain move into West Tennessee tonight and tomorrow morning but the best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will occur between the late afternoon and the late night hours, not ending in Savannah until midnight or 1 a.m. Sunday morning.

You may notice that some of that rain does change over to a wintry mix briefly as the front crosses the Tennessee River. The possibility for West Tennessee to see any freezing rain or sleet is there, but it still does not look like we'll see much if any accumulation. At the very most, there might be a light coating of ice on your car or on tree branches Sunday morning, but with minimal impact to our ability to travel. In Middle Tennessee, the possibility for accumulating ice is higher.

So to summarize:

• Best possible outcome with our weather this weekend is that we get some wind and rain with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet between Saturday night and Sunday morning.
• Worst case scenario is that in addition to the wind and rain, we have severe thunderstorms producing an isolated tornado with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet between Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Stay weather aware tomorrow! If you have any errands to run this weekend, Saturday morning and early afternoon will be the best time to get things done! Don't forget to tie down those Christmas decorations down tonight too!

I'll keep you posted with another update on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News!