Flood and Damaging Wind Threat Tonight

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a flooding and damaging wind threat forecast for tonight, the night of Tuesday, November 17, 2015.

An area of low pressure is forcing colder air through the Central and Southern Plains today creating a wide band of showers and thunderstorms that stretch from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Windy and wet weather are forecast for all of West Tennessee tonight and will last through Wednesday morning. This was a look at the VIPIR 7 Dopplar Radar at 2:17 this afternoon.

There's a slight risk (2 out of 5 chance) for thunderstorms to become severe in southwest Tennessee tonight posing a threat for localized damaging winds. There's also a low threat for tornadoes which seems to be an event more likely to take shape farther to the south and west of West Tennessee.

The band of heavy rain currently pushing through Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri will arrive in the western-most counties of West Tennessee between 9pm and midnight tonight. This band of rain will be moving through the area for a duration of 12 hours, so the slow progression of heavy rain will create a risk for flash flooding - especially in low lying areas with poor drainage.

The winds will be strongest before the rain arrives. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of West Tennessee tonight into tomorrow morning. Wind gusts will generally be between 30 and 40 mph but could be as high as 50 mph in some spots outside of any thunderstorms.

When the rain arrives, the winds may actually calm down some, but any thunderstorms that become severe could result in wind gusts over 60 mph. The area most likely to see that occur will be in the counties of West Tennessee that border Mississippi and areas south of the TN-MS border.

When the rain is finally over Wednesday morning, we'll be left with an additional 1"-3" of rain on the ground added to the rain most people saw last night. Keep an eye out for flooded roadways on the morning commute, and always remember to find a safer route to your destination if you happen come upon one.

Be safe and keep an eye out for more updates from the VIPIR 7 Storm Team.