Decreasing Chances for Severe Weather Today (Thursday, March 30th)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a chance for severe weather that is forecast for today, Thursday, March 30th, 2017.

Yesterday, Wednesday March 29th, the Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service placed our area in a moderate risk for severe weather (4 out of 5) the latest update came out this morning with most of West Tennessee now in a slight risk for severe weather (2 out of 5) and I wouldn't be surprised if more of us were in a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather by the next update at 12:30pm.



SO...WHAT HAPPENED?

We look at computer models multiple times a day, every day, to predict how weather patterns will change over time. Part of what makes forecasting difficult is that every computer model is affected by it's own forecast. So if it has a bad forecast when the model is run at 6am, then part of that bad forecast is still included with the next run at 12pm.

Plus, we look at some models that forecast specifically for a medium range time frame (1-3 days away) versus some that look at a much shorter range (0-18 hours away). The short range models didn't get this event into view until early this morning and, in this case, were much better predictors than the medium range models.

All that said, even though the risk is lower today, it's still worth proceeding through the afternoon with caution. This graphic indicates what the radar may look like between 8 a.m. this morning and 2 a.m. Friday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, but some parts of West Tennessee may not even get any rain at all.


 

The main threat within those scattered storms will be for heavy rain and lightning - typical thunderstorms, but an isolated severe thunderstorm is still possible which may produce large hail or damaging winds. The threat for tornadoes continues to look very low but it's not 0.

So to summarize:

• Scattered thunderstorms will return to West Tennessee early between 12 p.m. and 10 p.m.
• Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, put your cars in a garage or carport if you can
• An isolated tornado will still be possible but the chance for that remains low.

Stay weather aware! Have a way to receive severe weather information including a watch or warning if that is issued. I'll keep you posted with another update on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News!