One Year Since the Last Tornado Warning

Not that anyone is complaining, but with only 2 weak tornadoes forming in West Tennessee in May, it's been a relatively quiet year for severe weather. The Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Henry and Benton counties Monday evening was the first time a warning has been issued in West Tennessee since August 15th. We haven't had a tornado warning issued anywhere in West Tennessee since October 13th - of last year.

This "tornado drought" isn't unprecedented as the past 3 years have had less than 4 tornadoes occur each year in West Tennessee. In the last decade, the largest tornado outbreaks have happened in 2010, 2008, and 2006 when at least 10 tornadoes occurred during each of those years in this area.

However, if you look at it in terms of how many tornado warnings were issued each year over the last decade, 2015 really stands out! There have been 0 tornado warnings issued in West Tennessee in 2015 and that only comes close to 2007 when 5 warnings were issued throughout the entire year.

According to Zachary Maye with the National Weather Service in Memphis, the longest West Tennessee went without a tornado warning was from June 9, 1986 to December 15, 1987 which adds up to 554 days. That number still far surpasses the 365 days we're at now.

West Tennessee is going to be dealing with the effects of El Niño this winter which occurs when temperatures of the water in the Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. The weather in West Tennessee is typically not severe during El Niño but as we transition out of El Niño into La Niña, things often become more active. We might see an increase in severe weather next year and in 2017. 

Overall, it doesn't look like we'll be seeing severe weather again in the immediate future but the months of November and December typically see a bump in tornado frequency so it's always best to be prepared just in case!

For now, enjoy the sunshine and the beautiful Fall weekend ahead...

Severe Weather Risk for Friday June, 26

8:39 a.m. Friday, June 26

I wish there was a way for this forecast to change, I really do! Nobody wants to move to a new house in the rain. Unfortunately, since yesterday, it looks as though the risk for severe weather has become more enhanced over West Tennessee today. I'm not going to sugar-coat it, I'll just give you the bullet points for what to expect:

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin forming in West Tennessee from the late morning into the afternoon.
• If you have outdoor activities planned today, understand that there is a likely chance for frequent lightning in some of these storms. Remember to head indoors at the first sign of lightning or thunder!
• The risk for severe weather today is a 3 for most of West Tennessee (enhanced risk) and with any storms that become strong or severe today, the biggest threat for severe weather will be from damaging winds and large hail. Tying down some of those loose outdoor items you might have at your home would be a good idea.
• The probability for an isolated tornado is low, but if one does happen to form, it would be likelier to do so in the northern half of West Tennessee.
• Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving through the area until Saturday morning, at which point we'll transition into drier and cooler weather for the weekend.

ONE MORE THING: If you live in Madison county and rely on NOAA Weather Radio for weather alerts, the Jackson, TN broadcast is having technical difficulties. Workers are on the scene making repairs, but it is possible that it might not be ready in time before storms start forming today. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO GET WEATHER ALERTS! You can see alerts crawling across the bottom of your screen on WBBJ, or even download our app for or free on Apple (http://bit.ly/1fUs7vD) and Android (http://bit.ly/1g3VrjL) devices!

Be safe and stay weather aware!

Severe Weather Risk for Saturday, April 25th

There is a slight risk for severe weather in West Tennessee Saturday morning and early afternoon.

As a warm front moves into West Tennessee overnight, showers and thunderstorms will continue with the best chance for any thunder and lightning near the Tennessee-Mississippi border. The back edge of the bulk of showers and thunderstorms will likely move east of the Tennessee River after 7 a.m. CDT.

However, we may still see a few scattered storms in eastern counties of West Tennessee (Henry, Carroll, Benton, Henderson, Decatur, Chester, McNairy, and Hardin counties) during the hours after sunrise. Activity will be moving northeast with strong southwesterly winds. By the time the atmosphere gets more energy, most of the rain, and the ingredients to cause the storms will have moved north and east. Right now, it appears unlikely that West Tennessee will see severe weather.

If any storms become severe they could contain damaging straight-line winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall in these thunderstorms could also lead to flash flooding.

This forecast is all about timing, and the way the models have panned this out, it just doesn't seem like it's in the cards for this to be a severe weather event for West Tennessee. Even after all the rain is said and done, tomorrow will still be a windy day. Winds could gust over 30 miles per hour.

Summary

• Showers and thunderstorms overnight (t'storms possible near southwest TN)
• Showers become more isolated after sunrise
• A few stray storms are possible late morning early afternoon
• The chance for severe weather is low
• Windy weather coming in the afternoon