Severe Weather Possible Tuesday (2/2/16): MidDay Update

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a risk for severe weather that is forecast for Tuesday, February 2, 2016. Revisions to this forecast may be necessary so keep an eye out for updates. If you're short on time, head to the bottom for the quick version.

I mentioned earlier this morning that it looked like the threat was shifting east for severe weather on Tuesday, February 2nd. Right now, West Tennessee is still under a medium risk for severe weather for Tuesday.

I'm still getting some questions about TorCon (a tornado threat parameter from The Weather Channel) and the threat for tornadoes Tuesday so let me address that first. The animated image below shows you something similar to a TorCon - areas in yellow highlight where the threat for tornadoes could be from 12pm to 9pm on Tuesday. That being said, the threat still doesn't really give us more than a low to low-medium risk for tornadoes tomorrow. I'm holding to the forecast for a possibility for "weak" and brief tornadoes to be possible but nothing similar to what happened in West Tennessee on February 5th, 2008.



There's a best case scenario for tomorrow and a worst case. The best case scenario is that we get rain before lunchtime on Tuesday and that helps limit the amount of energy for storms giving us not much more than some thunderstorms that could have a few isolated incidents of damaging winds. The worst case is that there's a significant amount of energy available for these storms that will form sometime in the later morning - some as tornadoes - and developing into large areas of damaging winds. Either situation is entirely possible but I'm starting to lean toward the best case scenario. In both scenarios, Tuesday will be a very warm, wet, and windy day.

In summary, here's the QUICK VERSION:

• Tuesday is going to be a warm and windy day with a likely chance for rain no matter what.
• The best case scenario is that West Tennessee doesn't have a lot of energy for severe storms resulting in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon- some of which may contain damaging winds (leaning toward this one).
• The worst case scenario is that West Tennessee gets a significant amount of energy resulting in some widespread areas of damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes.
• Best chance for severe weather would be sometime between the late morning and evening (around 12pm to 9pm).

As always, stay weather-aware, prepare, and feel free to share!

- Tom

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday (2/2/16)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a risk for severe weather that is forecast for Tuesday, February 2, 2016. As always, revisions to this forecast will be necessary so keep an eye out for updates. If you're short on time, head to the bottom for the quick version.



As of 1:00 a.m. Monday, February 1st, the Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service has continued a medium risk for severe weather in West Tennessee on Tuesday, February 2nd. It's worth noting that the area of enhanced risk has shifted slightly east, something I suspect may continue in later outlooks.

First of all, Tuesday is going to be warm - you might even call it hot! While Monday will be slightly cooler than Sunday was, warm air will come back. Below is a model forecast for temperatures - 70s look likely in parts of West Tennessee.

One of the main things we watch in a forecast for severe weather is energy and there should be a sufficient amount of it for severe thunderstorms. In the image below, areas in blue are for a high of energy for winter-time. Don't focus so much on where that energy is on the map but rather as much as how high it could be. However, it's also possible that storms forming ahead of the main area of risk will limit the amount of energy we get causing severe weather to become less likely. It's an important piece of the recipe and we'll have to monitor this closely.

Right now, we have a high amount of confidence in West Tennessee getting a lot of rain on Tuesday - especially those areas near the Tennessee River. Currently, I think most of the area has a good chance to see 0.50" to 1" or more fall from Tuesday morning through evening.

As far as timing is concerned, the four images below outline the basic development of the storms on Tuesday. They show 12pm, 3pm, 6pm and 9pm. Our confidence is increasing on the main threat for severe weather taking place from later in the morning through the evening - say around 9am to 9pm. We'll get a better idea for that timeline on Monday, especially by the 10pm newscast.

Finally, just because this does fall on the first Tuesday of the month of February I know a lot of people are concerned with a threat for tornadoes given what happened here on February 5th, 2008. I'll say this - this forecast setup doesn't resemble what was forecast that day at all. However, "weak" and brief tornadoes will be possible. The map below shows an area in yellow that highlights a low to moderate value for a tornado risk. I'd be more concerned if I saw any red or maroon show up on the map.

In summary, here's the QUICK VERSION:

• On Tuesday - all of West Tennessee needs to be prepared for severe weather but especially if you live near the Tennessee River.
• Storms will start in the later hours of the morning and advance eastward through the afternoon and evening.
• The severe weather threat is increasing but it's certainly not guaranteed. Things can still change.
• Tornadoes look possible, but we're not expecting a major tornado outbreak - the main threat will be with damaging winds, flash flooding, and large hail.

Stay aware, prepare, and feel free to share!

- Tom

Major Winter Storm Expected Friday (1/22/2016)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a winter storm forecast for Friday, January 22, 2016.

Weather Update - 4:30 p.m. Thursday

West Tennessee will undergo impacts from a major winter storm over the next 24 hours. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for every one of the 21 counties in West Tennessee from Thursday night to Friday night. This means that significant snow and ice are imminent and it's important that you make your preparations before the event begins late tonight and early Friday morning!

 
Tonight, rain showers will continue to spread into West Tennessee from south to north. With cold air in place over northwest Tennessee, this will result in a chance for freezing rain and sleet overnight in counties north of Interstate-40. A tenth of an inch of ice will be possible in these areas and road conditions will gradually deteriorate. Along and south of Interstate-40, the main precipitation type will be rain, and a cold rain at that. In southwest Tennessee, especially near the Tennessee-Mississippi border, it will be possible that a rumble of thunder is heard overnight.

Tomorrow morning, the rain and ice will change over to snow between 5am and 9am. This will take place earlier in areas north of I-40 and later in areas south of I-40. All snow, is expected from 9am through lunch time. Some of that snow will be heavy at times resulting in dangerous travel conditions. Wind could gust between 30 and 40 miles per hour. Any accumulating ice and snow on tree branches, could result in power outages across West Tennessee due to these strong winds.

Snow will taper off Friday night into early Saturday morning, but road conditions will take time to improve since temperatures will only barely get above freezing on Saturday. Black ice will be possible Saturday night in locations that see any melting take place.

Stay with the VIPIR 7 Storm Team for the very latest updates to this forecast.

Tom Meiners
Storm Team 7 Chief Meteorologist, CBM
Twitter - @WBBJ7TomMeiners
Facebook - facebook.com/WBBJ.tom.meiners
Email - tmeiners@wbbjtv.com