Threat for Severe Weather Today: Saturday, November 30th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the risk for severe weather on the afternoon and evening of SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 30th.

UPDATE - 10:30am Saturday, November 30th, 2019

Showers and thunderstorms have already made for a wet morning in West Tennessee with heavy downpours and occasional thunder and lightning but the risk for severe weather will be delayed until the afternoon and evening. The threat for tornadoes is low but it's always one we take seriously and will continue to monitor for. There is a greater chance for damaging winds and large hail today than there is for tornadoes but even their risk is slight (level 2 out of 5).

SUMMARY 

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through for the rest of the morning and early afternoon but they're not expected to be severe
• Non-thunderstorm wind gusts may not be as high as they were this week on Tuesday night, but could still gust to 30 mph this afternoon and evening
• A second round of thunderstorms will develop in the middle of the afternoon and continue through the evening: 3pm - 9pm
• The 2nd round poses a slight risk for damaging winds and large hail with a low risk for an isolated tornado
• Wind gusts will be stronger on Sunday possibly up to 40 mph

Meteorologist Corallys Ortiz will have the forecast hour-by-hour live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 6:00pm on CBS. wbbjtv.com/live

A little bit about a Little Bit

This post is not weather related...

...but, it was on November 14th, 2018 that my wife and I had our first ultrasound of our baby girl - the same day that Jackson got the earliest 1" of snow on record. Every appointment afterwards seemed to coincide with various other weather phenomena seeming to prophecy that this tiny human would follow in my footsteps.

Our girl was due to be born on June 18th - a mere two days after Father's Day - and I told my wife, Evan, that she would never have to do anything for me ever again if she could only bring our baby into the world a little earlier so we could celebrate. I warned her that if our baby was born on June 18th, that we would be naming her after Jackson's new mayor (Scott or Jerry) set to be elected later that evening. Unfortunately, it turned out that our baby was going to have to come earlier in any case, because she was measuring small at our May appointments. Evan was going to be induced the night of June 10th or 11th.

To take in the quiet air of one of our last child-less nights, my wife and I enjoyed a perfect day on Saturday, June 8th. The weather in West Tennessee turned out just as forecast - scattered showers, warm and muggy. We proceeded through our usual Saturday ritual of getting our groceries (and donuts) at the Farmers' Market and visiting Pinson Mounds with our dog, Roxi. After tending to some last minute errands and preparing the home for baby, we went out for a date night of dinner and a movie. Everything seemed to be going according to our new plan. We went to bed around 11 o'clock.

I woke up at 2:30 Sunday morning to Evan telling me that something was happening. She thought that she was having contractions and that her water had broken. This wasn't expected, but it certainly was welcomed! Having a natural birth was high on the list of what Evan had hoped this pregnancy would culminate in! We got to the hospital at 4 that morning and found that Evan was fully effaced...

...but only 1 cm dilated.

It took 25 grueling hours before Evan could finally start pushing, and then 1 hour later, our beautiful girl was here! All that time in the hospital that seemed to drag on then felt so brief. We are so incredibly thankful for the hospital staff from triage to discharge that took care of us. We also can't thank Evan's parents enough who took care of us from the very beginning of labor through our first week as parents. They drove all the way from Raleigh the minute we told them we were going to the hospital! We're also incredibly grateful for the wisdom from Dr. Christopher Welch that kept the mama and baby healthy throughout the whole process. Our faith in God and the prayers of our family and church at Cornerstone Community Church saw us through the birth of our first child and will keep us going through the days, months, and years to come.

Many of you have reached out asking about her name. For the moment, my wife and I are keeping that information about her as private as this modern technological age will let us. We will be making a concerted effort to keep that part of her confidential for the moment. I am planning to be back on WBBJ on June 24th. You can catch me then, and I may even bring a guest soon after that. I cannot wait to show off this little bug on the green screen. Who knows what kind of weather we'll have then!

Threat for Severe Thunderstorms and Damaging Winds Tonight and Tomorrow

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the risk for severe weather on the night of WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13th and the late morning through afternoon of THURSDAY, MARCH 14th.

UPDATE - 12:45pm Wednesday, March 13th, 2019

I know this probably seems like it's getting old, but March, April, and May, are the most common months for severe weather in West Tennessee. This is par for the course for late Winter and early Spring which officially begins one week from today!

Showers and thunderstorms will begin moving into the area tonight with a threat for damaging winds. The threat for tornadoes tonight is low but the chance for rotating thunderstorms increases late Thursday morning through the afternoon.

SUMMARY 

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in after sunset and pose a threat for damaging winds overnight - especially near the Mississippi River
• Winds may gust over 60 miles per hour in the strongest storms, but even when it's not raining winds could still gust up to 50 mph this afternoon and evening
• A second round of thunderstorms will develop late tomorrow morning and afternoon 
• The 2nd round poses a slightly higher threat for tornadoes and large hail but will mainly impact parts of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River

I'll have the forecast hour-by-hour live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm and 6:00pm on ABC and at 5:30pm and 6:30pm on CBS. I'll be back with another update on both networks at 10:00pm.

Risk for Severe Weather on SATURDAY, MARCH 9th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for severe weather on SATURDAY, MARCH 9th.

UPDATE - 11:30am Friday, March 8th, 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, Friday, March 8th and again on Saturday, March 9th. Some of the thunderstorms that develop between Saturday morning, afternoon, and evening could become severe with a primary threat for damaging winds and large hail.

The main opportunity for any isolated tornadoes tomorrow would take place in the afternoon and evening but it depends on whether there is still energy available in the atmosphere to cause any thunderstorms to become strong at that point.

SUMMARY 

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, Friday March 8th although thunderstorms are not expected to become severe today
• After a brief break later this evening and tonight, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move through ahead of a warm front very early Saturday morning
• The main round of heavy showers and thunderstorms coming through tomorrow expected to move through during the morning and early afternoon moving from west to east. Some thunderstorms may become severe at that time with a primary concern for large hail
• The cold front will move through West Tennessee during the afternoon and evening on Saturday and if there is any energy still available, any thunderstorms that develop along the front could be rotating and produce a potential for a tornado. Again, this all depends on whether there is any energy left in the atmosphere in the afternoon and evening.

I'll have the latest forecast live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm and 6:00pm on ABC and at 5:30pm and 6:30pm on CBS. I'll be back with another update on both networks at 10:00pm.

Rain and Snow Today, Sunday, March 3rd

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the winter weather risk for the morning, afternoon, and evening of SUNDAY, March 3rd.

UPDATE - 10:00am Sunday, March 3rd, 2019
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northwest Tennessee until 1 o'clock this afternoon.




UPDATE - 8:30am Sunday, March 3rd, 2019

Last week, the models remained all in agreement that it looked like snow would fall mostly along the Tennessee-Kentucky state line and cause few issues near I-40 in West Tennessee. Very slowly, those models have gradually brought colder and colder air into West Tennessee farther and farther south. It's starting to look as though not only could parts of West Tennessee get "grass-covering" snow but also more of the area could see snow altogether.

The backbone of this forecast comes down to "where will the center of low pressure travel?" Colder air is on the north side of the low and warmer air is on the south side, so the farther south that feature goes, the farther south the cold air goes! This graphic shows a group of models trying to pin down where the low would be, and most now show central Mississippi.

There has been a gradual trend in the data that this low is going farther south allowing for colder air to invade more of West Tennessee. So let's actually look at the numbers and see what the 8 a.m. temperatures are.

Temperatures are cold everywhere but they're already only 2°F above freezing in northwest Tennessee, so snow may begin to fall there sooner than expected. Now, the low pressure is going to move slow, so we aren't expecting the temperatures to fall below freezing, for example, in Jackson until later tonight. This 24-hour forecast temperature chart shows below-freezing temperatures at 9 o'clock this evening.

But we don't necessarily have to have below freezing temperatures for snow to fall. Some parts of West Tennessee near the Tennessee-Kentucky state line will see snow first, and then gradually that rain-snow line will move farther south. Right now, radar is already estimating that a wintry mix is coming down over northwest Tennessee.

This will be the tricky part, as we'll depend on your observations to see where the snow is actually hitting the ground. Radar data is often only showing us what kind of precipitation is falling a mile up in the sky and not what is reaching the surface. Please keep me posted on what you're seeing via social media!

As far as totals go, that's going to be tricky too. Take this model for example - it shows a narrow band of 1"-2" of snow falling in West Tennessee just north of I-40.

However, there are still some factors limiting this from actually happening - the ground is too warm and the air temperatures will not drop fast enough for what falls to stick. We may very well have a band of 1-2" of snow fall in northwest Tennessee today but that's going to happen anywhere, it's likelier near where temperatures are already near freezing.



Please keep us posted on what you're seeing today as that will help us update the forecast! The snow is currently expected to stop this afternoon with a few light snow showers possible this evening. Then we're going to look at the potential for "flash freezing" tonight with below freezing temperatures causing slick roads in West Tennessee!

We'll have the latest forecast on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:30pm. I'll update social media throughout the day as well.

SUMMARY 

• Air temperatures are near freezing in northwest Tennessee and overall, temperatures are colder than expected
• It's possible that with below freezing temperatures there soon, we may see a quicker change over to a wintry mix or snow
• The rain-snow line will gradually travel south this morning and afternoon with the snow expected to stop this afternoon followed by a few light snow showers this evening
• See the graphic just above for forecast snowfall totals

Threat for Severe Weather Today - Saturday, February 23rd

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the afternoon and evening of SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 23rd.

UPDATE - 9:00am Saturday, February 23rd, 2019

Flash flooding and damaging winds remain the primary severe weather threat for West Tennessee today with heavy rain off-and-on through the evening and a potential for strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

SUMMARY 

• Energy is forecast to return to the atmosphere this afternoon when West Tennessee could see flash flooding and damaging winds occur with a secondary concern for large hail and a few tornadoes
• If you watched the news last night, it looks like we'll see a mix between Scenario A and B with a slight edge to Scenario A - the one giving us a chance for a more energy. Damaging winds and hail are still the main threats.
• The greatest threat for tornadoes is along and south of I-40 today where there is a moderate risk for severe weather (level 4 out of 5)

• The main threat for severe weather in West Tennessee starts after noon and evening takes place until 9 p.m. ending from west to east across the Tennessee River in the early evening

We'll have the latest forecast on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 6:00pm on ABC and CBS. If a tornado warning is issued we will stream coverage live at wbbjtv.com/live

Threat for Severe Weather Tonight and Saturday, February 23rd

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the evening of FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 22nd through SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 23rd.

UPDATE - 1:30pm Friday, February 22nd, 2019

Flash flooding remains the primary severe weather threat for West Tennessee with heavy rain off-and-on through Saturday evening. Strong thunderstorms will be possible tonight and again Saturday afternoon and evening.

SUMMARY 

• Heavy rain will move through West Tennessee overnight continuing the threat for flash flooding and adding a potential for strong thunderstorms that could produce large hail
• Any rain that occurs late tomorrow morning or early in the afternoon could knock down the energy in the atmosphere lowering the risk for severe weather
• If there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere, then West Tennessee could see flash flooding and damaging winds occur with a secondary concern for large hail and a few tornadoes
• The main threat for severe weather in West Tennessee starts Saturday afternoon and evening takes place between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m. starting near the Mississippi River in the afternoon and ending by the Tennessee River in the early evening

I'll have the latest forecast live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm and 6:00pm on ABC and at 5:30pm and 6:30pm on CBS. I'll be back with another update on both networks at 10:00pm.

wbbjtv.com/live

How to Spot Comet 46P/Wirtanen in the Sky Sunday (December 16th) Night!

Tonight, when looking up into the night sky, we'll be able to see one of the 10 closest approaches a comet has made to earth since the year was still being counted with three digits. While binoculars will make it easier to see, you don't necessarily need a telescope, and some of us may be able to see it unaided by lenses.

Preferably, you'll want to go somewhere especially dark and far from light pollution. It would be best if you ventured outside the city for this one. It doesn't need to be especially late either, just dark! This link has a way to find out where there is the least amount of light pollution near you. Make sure to give your eyes time to adjust to the darkness first before giving up!

This comet has been racing toward earth at a staggering 21,600 miles per hour. At it's closest distance to our blue planet, it will still be 7.1 million miles away from us - roughly 30 times the distance between the earth and the moon. So here's what we're looking for: we’ll be looking for a large, diffuse, dim object. Use this image as an example. We won't see the tail!

If you're a constellation buff, you'll be looking for the constellation "Taurus" to get your eyes close to where Wirtanen is located (there are some free apps online and available for download on smartphones for this). If you won't be using constellations for help, look towards the east first, and then gradually draw your gaze up until you're nearly looking straight up above. Here's an interactive sky chart to show where to look.

Now unfortunately, a dense fog advisory has been issued for the area. It's possible that fog may limit visibility in some spots, but mostly later at night more than in the earlier evening. Best of luck, skywatchers! If we can't spot this, hopefully we'll have better viewing conditions in a month when we have a lunar eclipse!

Potential for Rain, Ice, and Snow This Weekend (December 8th-9th)

This blog post is pertaining to the chance for accumulating snow and ice from SATURDAY, December 8th to SUNDAY, December 9th, 2018.

UPDATE - 1:30pm THURSDAY, December 6th, 2018

Accumulating snow and ice has been consistently in the forecast for West Tennessee (specifically northwest Tennessee) from Saturday through Sunday and even a bit on Monday. Here's a short summary of this 4 minute and 4 second video.

SUMMARY 

• A Winter Weather Advisory may be issued for West Tennessee north of I-40
• The best chance for snow and ice will be north of I-40
• Wintry weather will begin to occur on Saturday, but most of our viewers may not experience it until Sunday
• Impacts to church schedules for Sunday services and school schedules on Monday are likely

Watch WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm for the forecast totals!

wbbjtv.com/live

Snow and Ice Possible Wednesday and Thursday (November 14th - 15th)

This blog post is pertaining to the chance for accumulating snow and ice from WEDNESDAY, November 14th to THURSDAY, November 15th, 2018.

UPDATE - 1:00pm TUESDAY, November 13th, 2018

Accumulating snow and ice is continuing to look more and more likely for West Tennessee from Wednesday through Thursday. Here's a short summary of this 4 minute and 7 second video.

SUMMARY 

• A Winter Weather Advisory is going to be issued for West Tennessee from 6 a.m. Wednesday through noon Thursday
• A wintry mix will begin to fall in West Tennessee from the later hours of Wednesday morning through Thursday morning
• The best chance for snow and ice will be from 3pm Wednesday through 9pm Wednesday
• Snow amounts could be highest in northwest Tennessee near the Mississippi River
• Ice amounts could be highest near the Tennessee River
• Impacts to church schedules for Wednesday night services and school schedules are likely, but due to road temperatures being warmer than freezing, most roads will be passible

Watch WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:00pm for the forecast totals!

wbbjtv.com/live

Potential for Severe Thunderstorms Tonight, Monday November 5th

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the evening of MONDAY, November 5th, 2018.

UPDATE - 11:30am Monday, November 5th, 2018

Little has changed with the forecast. We're likely going to see severe thunderstorms in West Tennessee with a primary threat for damaging winds. While tornadoes still seem possible, they're mainly likely near the Tennessee-Mississippi state line.

SUMMARY 

• Showers and thunderstorms are coming today (Monday 11/5/2018) from the afternoon through the first half of the night - from just after noon through midnight
• Severe weather looks most likely to occur from 6pm through 12am
• Everyone in West Tennessee will get rain but not everyone will get severe weather 
• Damaging winds are the main threat but tornadoes and large hail are possible too
• Tornadoes are possible especially along Interstate 40 and points south

Watch Moe Shamell give the latest forecast live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 11:30am and at 12p!

wbbjtv.com/live

Risk for Severe Weather Monday, November 5th, 2018

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the afternoon and night of MONDAY, November 5th, 2018.

Figured we'd go with another video briefing today but I'll still put a summary below if you don't have time to watch. The video is 6 minutes and 49 seconds long.

SUMMARY 

• Showers and thunderstorms are coming tomorrow (Monday 11/5/2018) from the afternoon through the first half of the night - from just after noon through midnight
• Severe weather looks most likely to occur from 5pm through 11pm, but that timeline has been trending earlier and earlier with new incoming data
• Everyone in West Tennessee will get rain but not everyone will get severe weather 
• Damaging winds are the main threat but tornadoes and large hail are possible too
• Tornadoes are possible especially south of Interstate 40 and points south

Watch Corallys Ortiz give the latest forecast live on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News at 5:30p and at 10p!

Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight (Monday, August 20th)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the day and night of MONDAY, August 20th, 2018.

People like watching videos right? Let's go with that today instead and I'll put a summary below if you don't have time to watch. The video is 4 minutes and 36 seconds long.

SUMMARY

• A round of showers and thunderstorms is coming through during the middle of the day - late morning through early afternoon. Not likely to be severe 
• Sunshine redevelops this afternoon causing the atmosphere to become unstable
• Another round of thunderstorms arrive in the late afternoon and evening carrying across West Tennessee until midnight
• Main timeline for a severe weather threat is from 4pm to 10pm
• Not everyone in West Tennessee will get rain and fewer will get severe weather 
• Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats 
• An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out

Watch Moe and me live on WBBJ at wbbjtv.com/live

Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight (Friday, July 20th)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the day and night of FRIDAY, JULY 20th, 2018.

Get ready, West Tennessee! We don't often have severe weather in the middle of July, but the current weather set-up warrants advanced notice of a threat of severe thunderstorms that could produce large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

Currently, as of creating this blog post at 11 a.m. this Friday morning, thunderstorms moving through eastern Arkansas have created a layer of cloud cover over most of West Tennessee. This is a good thing! Typically, a layer of cloud cover in the morning, can inhibit daytime heating and limit the threat for severe weather. It won't remove the threat completely but it certainly could keep thunderstorms from becoming as strong as they would have with perfectly clear skies.

Here's a look at satellite from this morning and the radar showing where showers and clouds were just after 10:30 a.m. with the activity moving southeast.

This afternoon and evening is when our threat for severe weather will increase, and the risk will rise quickly. All of West Tennessee (as of 11 a.m.) is at least under an enhanced risk but northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River is under a moderate risk for severe weather. That's a level 3 or 4 out of 5. Again, something very unusual for July.

Models that we use to simulate what radar may look like throughout the day have not been doing a good job with the thunderstorms that moved through Arkansas this morning, so we're going to have to talk about timing carefully.

All models have shown showers and thunderstorms moving through West Tennessee after sunset tonight, but a few of the more recent simulations show that thunderstorms could start developing and become severe near Paris, Martin, Huntingdon, and Camden as early as 2 o'clock this afternoon.

Here's a look at what those latest models show in terms of coverage of showers and thunderstorms through 11 o'clock tonight.

The biggest takeaway you should get from this animated picture, is not "when will it hit my house" but notice that not everyone in West Tennessee will get rain today/tonight much less severe weather. The timing and location of the incoming thunderstorms is still extremely uncertain.

All forms of severe weather are possible, including large hail and damaging winds as a primary concern especially in the area under a moderate risk for severe weather. However, an isolated tornado is also possible anywhere in West Tennessee.

If you're going to be out of the house and away from the TV today, just make sure you have a way to get weather watches and warnings on your phone! That could be as simple as using your Twitter account to get "Mobile Notifications" from any one of the meteorologists at WBBJ (@WBBJ7Weather, @WBBJ7TomMeiners, @WBBJ7Moe, @WBBJ7Corallys, or @WBBJ7Brian). Or you could use wbbjtv.com/live to watch our newscasts live at 11:30a, 12, 5, 5:30, 6, 6:30, and 10 for updates.

SUMMARY

• Latest data has some thunderstorms developing in West Tennessee as early as 2pm
• Severe weather is possible today but the timing and location of severe thunderstorms in West Tennessee is still uncertain
• Not everyone in West Tennessee will get rain and fewer will get severe weather
• Thunderstorms will be likeliest to occur this afternoon and evening through sunset
• Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out

Risk for Severe Weather and Flash Flooding Tonight and Tomorrow (Saturday, April 14th)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the night of FRIDAY, APRIL 13th, 2018 and the day of SATURDAY, APRIL 14th, 2018.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is threatening to bring heavy rain and severe weather to West Tennessee tonight and tomorrow. Here are a few things to think about when considering this forecast...

• there's a wide window of opportunity for a strong thunderstorm or flash flooding in West Tennessee
• we need to keep a method of receiving watches and warnings on hand throughout that time period
• another shot of cold air will come behind this front

Let's begin by talking about the timeframe. There may end up being multiple round of showers and thunderstorms for parts of West Tennessee tonight and tomorrow. This graphic below, will simply show you when the first round will arrive late tonight into early Saturday morning.

After the first round, there will be a chance for more storms to occur in West Tennessee later in the morning and afternoon on Saturday. Now, about the threat for severe weather...

The risk shown here exists from tonight through 7 a.m. Saturday. Most of our viewing area is under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather which means that scattered severe storms are possible. They are more likely to be short-lived but intense. Portions of southwest Tennessee including Memphis are under an enhanced risk (3 out of 5) for severe weather which means numerous severe storms are possible there and they may be more persistent and/or widespread. Finally, portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River such as Paris, Camden, Hollow Rock, Bruceton, Parsons, Decaturville, and Savannah are under a marginal risk (1 out of 5) where isolated severe thunderstorms are possible but they're more limited in their intensity.

As for tomorrow, this graphic shows a risk for severe weather continuing into Saturday and this graphic forecasts from 7 a.m. Saturday through Saturday evening.

...most of West Tennessee is in the marginal risk (1 out of 5) zone but portions of southwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River including Parsons, Decaturville, Chesterfield, Sardis, Reagan, Jacks Creek, Henderson, Middleton, Selmer, Bethel Springs, Savannah, and Counce are under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather.

Tonight into Saturday morning, damaging winds are the main threat. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out along the squall line as it moves in but the threat for a spin up is more likely closer to the Mississippi River. During the day on Saturday, all forms of severe weather are possible (damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado) but the main threat is still for damaging winds.

Here's an image showing what radar could look like Saturday afternoon at 4pm. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving from southwest to northeast. Those thunderstorms near the Tennessee River could be strong or severe and we'll be watching that area very closely tomorrow.

In terms of rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch is still in effect for most of West Tennessee tomorrow.

The vast majority of our viewing area is looking at a potential for 2-4" of rain to fall between tonight and Saturday night. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation! Excessive rainfall, up to 2 inches an hour will be possible. Urban areas, low lands adjacent to rivers and streams, and low water crossings will be the most vulnerable to the heavy downpours. You should monitor our future forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.

SUMMARY

• Strong thunderstorms will move across West Tennessee late tonight into Saturday morning
• Damaging winds are the main threat tonight and tomorrow but isolated tornadoes are possible
• Multiple rounds of heavy rain may occur in portions of West Tennessee, but especially in areas close to the Tennessee River
• A slight risk for severe weather is forecast for southwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River tomorrow morning and afternoon
• Flash flooding could occur in West Tennessee with 2-4" of rain falling from this event

Make sure keep a method of receiving watches and warnings on hand throughout tonight and tomorrow, and watch WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News for the latest forecast!

Risk for Severe Weather Tonight (4/3/2018)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the evening of TUESDAY, APRIL 3rd, 2018.

April is the second most common month for tornadoes in West Tennessee. In fact, it was 12 years ago yesterday, that parts of Dyer, Gibson, Weakley, and Carroll counties had to deal with one of (if not the) longest tracked tornado on record for West Tennessee moving from northeastern Arkansas to southeast Missouri and eventually northwest Tennessee. Today, the main concern is the threat for damaging winds but the threat for tornadoes is becoming a bit more concerning for northwest Tennessee.

Here's a look at the potential threats for tonight...

...and a look at the timeline for those threats...

...most of the bad weather won't be coming until sunset or later. The storms will be moving through quickly too, so by midnight not only is the risk for severe weather over but the rain should be gone for the most part too.

Right now, we're seeing abundant sunshine poke through the clouds and that's leading to a more unstable atmosphere already. We look for 1,000 units of energy in the lower atmosphere for severe storms this time of year and we're already there at 10 a.m. this morning!

A Wind Advisory also just went into effect with a potential for winds to gust between 30 and 40 miles per hour even before the storms arrive this evening.

However, the fact is, not everyone in West Tennessee will get severe weather tonight. We may all get rain, but depending on how the incoming squall line unfolds, we may see some spots get just rain, and other areas get strong thunderstorms. This animated image shows what radar could look like this evening. A big concern is if we get discrete thunderstorms ahead of the main line to form tornadoes before the cold front moves in. That appears to be getting more likely, so the late afternoon hours will be watched closely too.

One parameter we look at for our threat for tornadoes is the "Significant Tornado Parameter". It's on a scale from 0-9, and some of the data has shown that number increasing every time the data gets refreshed. It's now at a 4 in northwest Tennessee at 7pm tonight.

That appears to be where tornadoes will be likeliest before the threat transitions to mostly a damaging wind and large hail threat for areas near the Tennessee River and south of I-40.

SUMMARY

• A Wind Advisory is in effect today with winds gusting between 30 and 40 mph even before rain arrives
• THREAT TIMELINE - 5PM TO 10PM
• Not everyone will see severe weather
• The strongest storms could produce primarily damaging winds and large hail as well as a few tornadoes 
• Northwest Tennessee is where tornadoes are likeliest to occur this evening if any form at all

Make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather information whether that be using your television to watch us on WBBJ or with a NOAA weather radio, or your smart phone. Keep that smartphone charged in case the power goes out! We'll do our best to stream live coverage of the storms on Facebook should we need to.