NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the night of FRIDAY, APRIL 13th, 2018 and the day of SATURDAY, APRIL 14th, 2018.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is threatening to bring heavy rain and severe weather to West Tennessee tonight and tomorrow. Here are a few things to think about when considering this forecast...
- there's a wide window of opportunity for a strong thunderstorm or flash flooding in West Tennessee
- we need to keep a method of receiving watches and warnings on hand throughout that time period
- another shot of cold air will come behind this front
Let's begin by talking about the timeframe. There may end up being multiple round of showers and thunderstorms for parts of West Tennessee tonight and tomorrow. This graphic below, will simply show you when the first round will arrive late tonight into early Saturday morning.
After the first round, there will be a chance for more storms to occur in West Tennessee later in the morning and afternoon on Saturday. Now, about the threat for severe weather...
The risk shown here exists from tonight through 7 a.m. Saturday. Most of our viewing area is under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather which means that scattered severe storms are possible. They are more likely to be short-lived but intense. Portions of southwest Tennessee including Memphis are under an enhanced risk (3 out of 5) for severe weather which means numerous severe storms are possible there and they may be more persistent and/or widespread. Finally, portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River such as Paris, Camden, Hollow Rock, Bruceton, Parsons, Decaturville, and Savannah are under a marginal risk (1 out of 5) where isolated severe thunderstorms are possible but they're more limited in their intensity.
After the first round, there will be a chance for more storms to occur in West Tennessee later in the morning and afternoon on Saturday. Now, about the threat for severe weather...
The risk shown here exists from tonight through 7 a.m. Saturday. Most of our viewing area is under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather which means that scattered severe storms are possible. They are more likely to be short-lived but intense. Portions of southwest Tennessee including Memphis are under an enhanced risk (3 out of 5) for severe weather which means numerous severe storms are possible there and they may be more persistent and/or widespread. Finally, portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River such as Paris, Camden, Hollow Rock, Bruceton, Parsons, Decaturville, and Savannah are under a marginal risk (1 out of 5) where isolated severe thunderstorms are possible but they're more limited in their intensity.
As for tomorrow, this graphic shows a risk for severe weather continuing into Saturday and this graphic forecasts from 7 a.m. Saturday through Saturday evening.
...most of West Tennessee is in the marginal risk (1 out of 5) zone but portions of southwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River including Parsons, Decaturville, Chesterfield, Sardis, Reagan, Jacks Creek, Henderson, Middleton, Selmer, Bethel Springs, Savannah, and Counce are under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather.
Tonight into Saturday morning, damaging winds are the main threat. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out along the squall line as it moves in but the threat for a spin up is more likely closer to the Mississippi River. During the day on Saturday, all forms of severe weather are possible (damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado) but the main threat is still for damaging winds.
Here's an image showing what radar could look like Saturday afternoon at 4pm. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving from southwest to northeast. Those thunderstorms near the Tennessee River could be strong or severe and we'll be watching that area very closely tomorrow.
In terms of rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch is still in effect for most of West Tennessee tomorrow.
The vast majority of our viewing area is looking at a potential for 2-4" of rain to fall between tonight and Saturday night. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation! Excessive rainfall, up to 2 inches an hour will be possible. Urban areas, low lands adjacent to rivers and streams, and low water crossings will be the most vulnerable to the heavy downpours. You should monitor our future forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
...most of West Tennessee is in the marginal risk (1 out of 5) zone but portions of southwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River including Parsons, Decaturville, Chesterfield, Sardis, Reagan, Jacks Creek, Henderson, Middleton, Selmer, Bethel Springs, Savannah, and Counce are under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather.
Tonight into Saturday morning, damaging winds are the main threat. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out along the squall line as it moves in but the threat for a spin up is more likely closer to the Mississippi River. During the day on Saturday, all forms of severe weather are possible (damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado) but the main threat is still for damaging winds.
Here's an image showing what radar could look like Saturday afternoon at 4pm. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving from southwest to northeast. Those thunderstorms near the Tennessee River could be strong or severe and we'll be watching that area very closely tomorrow.
In terms of rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch is still in effect for most of West Tennessee tomorrow.
The vast majority of our viewing area is looking at a potential for 2-4" of rain to fall between tonight and Saturday night. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation! Excessive rainfall, up to 2 inches an hour will be possible. Urban areas, low lands adjacent to rivers and streams, and low water crossings will be the most vulnerable to the heavy downpours. You should monitor our future forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
SUMMARY
Make sure keep a method of receiving watches and warnings on hand throughout tonight and tomorrow, and watch WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News for the latest forecast!
- Strong thunderstorms will move across West Tennessee late tonight into Saturday morning
- Damaging winds are the main threat tonight and tomorrow but isolated tornadoes are possible
- Multiple rounds of heavy rain may occur in portions of West Tennessee, but especially in areas close to the Tennessee River
- A slight risk for severe weather is forecast for southwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River tomorrow morning and afternoon
- Flash flooding could occur in West Tennessee with 2-4" of rain falling from this event
Make sure keep a method of receiving watches and warnings on hand throughout tonight and tomorrow, and watch WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News for the latest forecast!
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