Tonight's Risk for Severe Weather

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to a chance for severe weather that is forecast 

for tonight, Wednesday, April 26th, 2017.

A broken line of thunderstorms is traveling across Arkansas and Missouri and is forecast to arrive in West Tennessee tonight. Those storms may arrive as soon as 7pm for parts of West Tennessee near the Mississippi River. Either way, tonight is a night to be weather aware!

Here's an animated image for what the radar could look like this afternoon and evening as the cold front moves in...

The graphic I posted last evening on the arrival time of these thunderstorms hasn't changed much, the storms will arrive after sunset for most of West Tennessee but could come as early as between 6-8pm for areas along the Mississippi River.

The risk for severe weather has increased since yesterday's outlook with much of West Tennessee under a slight risk (2 out of 5) and some areas of southwest Tennessee under an enhanced risk (3 out of 5). The primary concern is for some thunderstorms to produce damaging winds (winds gusting over 60 miles per hour) and and large hail (hail bigger than quarters).

There's a low threat for tornadoes but an isolated tornado near the Mississippi River seems worth watching out for this evening. One of the many data products I look at when making a forecast regarding the tornado probability is the Significant Tornado Parameter. This tool gives me an idea for how likely a tornado would be within a thunderstorm. I look for values above 1 but really start to consider tornadoes a more serious threat once values are 3 or 4 and above. Those values barely reach 2 near the Mississippi River but still indicate that this a risk worth monitoring. This data shows the values will stay below 1 for most of West Tennessee tonight.

These storms could leave a significant amount of rainfall in the area tonight as well, so flash flooding will be another concern.

So to summarize:

• Severe weather potential for West Tennessee tonight starting at 6pm near the Mississippi River 
• All forms of severe weather are possible though the threat for a tornado remains low
• Thunderstorms will exit West Tennessee completely between midnight and 2am as they cross the Tennessee River

Tune in to WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News tonight for the latest forecast! I'll go through each hour of the night and cover the latest updates to our severe weather risk.