Potential Snowfall by Thursday, February 5, 2015

Tomorrow, February 4th is what we might consider the "mid-point" of Winter with half the season over and another half still to go. The first day of Spring in 2015 is on March 20th and for those wishing for warmer weather, it couldn't come a minute too soon!

Regarding the potential for snowfall in West Tennessee from Wednesday night into Thursday morning, don't expect a big storm. There's currently only a 10%-20% chance for 1" of snow to accumulate anywhere in West Tennessee. Those numbers aren't impressive so we shouldn't worry about getting a lot of snow with this system. Still, with a lack of snowfall removal resources in rural areas of West Tennessee, there's a potential for hazardous travel Thursday morning.

Our in-house computer model is showing a chance for at least a trace amount of snowfall as far south as into parts of northern Mississippi. However, with all precipitation expected to be falling very lightly, whether its snow or rain, I'm a bit skeptical that we'll see accumulation that far to the south. Considering there's still some uncertainty as to how warm/cold the atmosphere will be when precipitation starts, I think that most, if not all, of the sticking snow will be north of the Tennessee-Mississippi border.

Based on that computer model, these are the projected snowfall totals as of 6:30 p.m. Tuesday February 3rd, 2015 by noon on Thursday -

Currently, I'm leaning on the side of this snowfall resulting in a dusting across most of West Tennessee. Heavier amounts (basically a heavy dusting) will be possible in areas north of I-40.

In the worst-case scenario where the cold air gets here sooner than currently expected, we could see higher snowfall totals.

In that event, counties in northwest Tennessee especially those that border western Kentucky and southeast Missouri, could get 1"-2" of snow. Most of West Tennessee, including extreme northern portions of Mississippi, would get at least a trace of snowfall if that situation pans out.


 


We'll be monitoring this one closely, with another update coming out Wednesday morning.