Updated Forecast for Friday January 23rd

At the present time (11:51 a.m. Thursday January 22nd), once again it looks as though West Tennessee will miss a chance at seeing any significantly accumulating snow.

If you read the blog yesterday, you might remember that I mentioned the 3-strikes scenario. On Tuesday (1/20) there were a small number of computer models suggesting the possibility for snow on Friday (strike 1), on Wednesday more models suggested snow (strike 2), but now today models are backing off on snow and suggesting primarily rain - no strike 3.


Basically, here's what's changed - models are coming into better agreement saying that precip will start as rain after midnight tonight (Thursday night) and roughly move from southwest to northeast. The center of the low pressure system in question will be moving from the Gulf Coast into land moving northeast toward Savannah, Georgia.

Rain will continue to move into West Tennessee through the morning but could change to a rain and snow mix by the afternoon. This is going to sound silly because we say it all the time, but Interstate 40 should once again be a rough indicator for where the precip change will occur. After noon on Friday a rain/snow mix will be possible north of I-40 while south of the interstate it should continue as all rain. (In case you're wondering, the answer is no - I-40 has no affect on our weather. It's only merely coincidence.)

Regarding possible accumulation - it's unlikely. At best I think we could get a dusting on grassy surfaces and trees by midnight Friday night in northern and northeastern counties of West Tennessee. If you were wishing for snow here's your hope - the 'Weather Prediction Center' is still indicating a 30%-40% probability for snow to accumulate to greater than or equal to 1" in the 24-hour period ending 6 a.m. Saturday.

Pending future updates to the forecast, here's what you can expect in a nutshell -

• Wet roads in Friday morning - all rain
• Rain snow mix after noon in northern West Tennessee but staying all rain roughly south of I-40
• Uncertainty about early dismissals for schools - keep up with WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News (wbbjtv.com) for more on that
• Exercise caution when traveling north of I-40 during the afternoon. Roads should continue to just be wet and not accumulate snow since the ground is so warm but be prepared for slower than normal traffic in busy areas.
• Dropping temps on Friday night could lead to slippery spots on bridges and elevated roads. Especially in areas that see the heavier rain/snow.

We'll keep you updated with more details tonight on the news, and I'll post another update tomorrow morning.