Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight (Friday, July 20th)

NOTE: This blog post is pertaining to the severe weather risk for the day and night of FRIDAY, JULY 20th, 2018.

Get ready, West Tennessee! We don't often have severe weather in the middle of July, but the current weather set-up warrants advanced notice of a threat of severe thunderstorms that could produce large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

Currently, as of creating this blog post at 11 a.m. this Friday morning, thunderstorms moving through eastern Arkansas have created a layer of cloud cover over most of West Tennessee. This is a good thing! Typically, a layer of cloud cover in the morning, can inhibit daytime heating and limit the threat for severe weather. It won't remove the threat completely but it certainly could keep thunderstorms from becoming as strong as they would have with perfectly clear skies.

Here's a look at satellite from this morning and the radar showing where showers and clouds were just after 10:30 a.m. with the activity moving southeast.

This afternoon and evening is when our threat for severe weather will increase, and the risk will rise quickly. All of West Tennessee (as of 11 a.m.) is at least under an enhanced risk but northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River is under a moderate risk for severe weather. That's a level 3 or 4 out of 5. Again, something very unusual for July.

Models that we use to simulate what radar may look like throughout the day have not been doing a good job with the thunderstorms that moved through Arkansas this morning, so we're going to have to talk about timing carefully.

All models have shown showers and thunderstorms moving through West Tennessee after sunset tonight, but a few of the more recent simulations show that thunderstorms could start developing and become severe near Paris, Martin, Huntingdon, and Camden as early as 2 o'clock this afternoon.

Here's a look at what those latest models show in terms of coverage of showers and thunderstorms through 11 o'clock tonight.

The biggest takeaway you should get from this animated picture, is not "when will it hit my house" but notice that not everyone in West Tennessee will get rain today/tonight much less severe weather. The timing and location of the incoming thunderstorms is still extremely uncertain.

All forms of severe weather are possible, including large hail and damaging winds as a primary concern especially in the area under a moderate risk for severe weather. However, an isolated tornado is also possible anywhere in West Tennessee.

If you're going to be out of the house and away from the TV today, just make sure you have a way to get weather watches and warnings on your phone! That could be as simple as using your Twitter account to get "Mobile Notifications" from any one of the meteorologists at WBBJ (@WBBJ7Weather, @WBBJ7TomMeiners, @WBBJ7Moe, @WBBJ7Corallys, or @WBBJ7Brian). Or you could use wbbjtv.com/live to watch our newscasts live at 11:30a, 12, 5, 5:30, 6, 6:30, and 10 for updates.

SUMMARY

• Latest data has some thunderstorms developing in West Tennessee as early as 2pm
• Severe weather is possible today but the timing and location of severe thunderstorms in West Tennessee is still uncertain
• Not everyone in West Tennessee will get rain and fewer will get severe weather
• Thunderstorms will be likeliest to occur this afternoon and evening through sunset
• Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out