First Day of Winter: Severe Weather Threat

Record warmth during December usually results in a chance for severe weather in West Tennessee, and Saturday, December 21st will be no exception. The irony that this type of warm weather falls on the first day of Winter is just one of the many outrageous characteristics of the scenario that is headed our way. I'm sure a lot of people will appreciate the near 70° weather Saturday afternoon, but it comes with a consequence, so if you have traveling to do or errands to run anytime between tonight and tomorrow night, here's what you NEED to know...

From the National Weather Service, this is the Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 Outlook showing us where they expect a chance for severe weather.

Here's a closer look at West Tennessee...

Jackson remains on the very edge between a slight risk and a moderate risk for severe weather, while Memphis and much of southwest Tennessee are under a moderate risk and the rest of West Tennessee is under a slight risk.

I don't want to waste time talking about the differences between a slight and moderate risk because it might make things more complicated. What I want you to understand, is that right now, the risk appears greatest for severe weather in areas along and south of I-40 in West Tennessee.

Right now, the main threat for severe weather will come from damaging straight-line winds and flash flooding. A secondary threat for isolated tornadoes in West Tennessee will also be possible (more on this below).Take a look at the amount of rainfall the country could see from these storms here...

Northwest Tennessee is at the greatest risk for flash flooding and that's why there are flash flood watches issued for those areas from Friday night until Saturday night. This includes Lauderdale, Dyer, Lake, Obion, Crockett, Gibson, Weakley, and Henry counties. 3"-5" of rainfall will be possible for these areas. If you live in a flood prone area, take the necessary precautions NOW to keep your home safe!

One last thing. Through the magic of the Internet, I was able to grab a couple snapshots of a day in November that had very similar characteristics to the weather setup that we'll have tomorrow.

This image shows where the moderate and slight risks were for that day...

This next image shows where the tornadoes (red dots) formed when all was said and done...

Of course, this shows that all of the tornadoes stayed to our south in Texas, southeast Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. However, consider the fact that no two weather events are EXACTLY alike, and it will still be possible for tornadoes to form in the area. The strongest chance for severe weather will take place between Saturday afternoon and around midnight Saturday night. By Sunday morning, the severe weather threat will have ended.

Make sure your NOAA Weather Radios have good batteries and keep them turned on!

We'll keep you posted with more details on WBBJ, and the social media pages from the VIPIR 7 Storm Team. Be safe and have a Merry Christmas!